Mid day. We take it though
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/16
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.76u
ROI: 15.20%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.19u
ROI: -2.38%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.36% | N/A | N/A |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago Cubs | 59.30% | 0.0971 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 69.54% | 0.0640 | -190 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Atlanta Braves | 45.69% | 0.0965 | +140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins* | Seattle Mariners | 52.55% | 0.0510 | +100 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 73.95% | 0.3534 | -120 |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Houston Astros | 52.03% | 0.0666 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets* | Kansas City Royals | 54.85% | 0.2342 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.67% | 0.0600 | -170 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 51.18% | 0.0134 | +100 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.09% | 0.0269 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 55.69% | N/A | N/A |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 48.56% | 0.1656 | +140 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.10% | 0.2020 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants* | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.29% | 0.0043 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.12% | 0.0522 | +220 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.36% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago Cubs | 59.30% |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 69.54% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.31% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins* | Seattle Mariners | 52.55% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 73.95% |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Houston Astros | 52.03% |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets* | Kansas City Royals | 54.85% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.67% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 51.18% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.09% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Milwaukee Brewers | 55.69% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.44% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | Arizona Diamondbacks | 60.10% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants* | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.29% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 67.12% |
*Missing starting pitcher/doubleheader
I was really hoping I would have a comeback go my way for once, but the Rockies couldn’t finish the deal. Pretty bad start to the week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.70% | 0.0107 | -220 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.17% | 0.1165 | +105 |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.96% | -0.0308 | -120 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 67.27% | 0.4464 | +115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.62% | 0.0432 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 59.41% | 0.0695 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.16% | 0.0950 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 44.51% | 0.2463 | +180 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.70% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 53.17% |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.96% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 67.27% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.62% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 59.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.16% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.49% |
Diamondbacks had the filthiest loss I’ve seen in a while. Also, Cardinal’s manager is an idiot, but we’ve known this for a while.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.12u
ROI: 2.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 54/94
Picks won: 21/44
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -4.55%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 68.02% | 0.2721 | -115 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 59.43% | 0.0044 | -145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 63.83% | 0.1809 | -115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 58.46% | 0.2277 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 58.27% | 0.2527 | +115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.93% | 0.1684 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.64% | -0.0427 | -145 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros* | Houston Astros | 60.70% | 0.1107 | -120 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Detroit Tigers | 61.69% | 0.0918 | -130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% | -0.0228 | -120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64.80% | 0.2960 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.16% | 0.0093 | -120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.23% | 0.0129 | -130 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 36.10% | -0.0253 | +170 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 59.09% | -0.0385 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 68.02% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 59.43% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 63.83% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 58.46% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 58.27% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.93% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros* | Houston Astros | 60.70% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Detroit Tigers | 61.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 53.40% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 64.80% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.16% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 57.23% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.90% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 59.09% |
*Missing Rays starting pitcher
Knew this would happen but ofc I got touched today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -3.25u
ROI: -40.62%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 43/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/79
Picks won: 18/38
Net Units: -2.12u
ROI: -5.58%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% | -0.0018 | -170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% | 0.1984 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% | 0.1912 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% | -0.0363 | -160 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% | 0.2817 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% | 0.0718 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.37% | -0.0109 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% | 0.5291 | +140 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% | 0.2685 | +140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 45.84% | -0.0373 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% | 0.3411 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 40.68% | -0.0238 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% | 0.1272 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% | 0.1141 | -155 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 30.52% | -0.0234 | +220 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.63% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 54.16% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 59.32% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.48% |
Good day, but who knows how long it’ll last.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.92u
ROI: 18.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 35/64
Sportsbook favorites won: 37/64
Picks won: 16/30
Net Units: +1.13u
ROI: 3.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% | 0.0006 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.30% | -0.0041 | +130 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% | 0.5253 | +180 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% | 0.2598 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.86% | -0.0369 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% | 0.0904 | -105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% | -0.0189 | -150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% | 0.214 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% | 0.0635 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% | 0.3449 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% | 0.0551 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% | -0.0247 | -250 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% | 0.1914 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.70% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.14% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% |
Bayesball Picks 