Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/12/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 10.5%
      • Chicago White Sox ML +125, 9%
      • Philadelphia Phillies ML +200, 8%
      • Kansas City Royals ML -105, 13.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 10%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh PiratesMiami Marlins47.60%0.0378+120
      Seattle Mariners vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals44.37%-0.0016+125
      San Diego Padres vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles66.47%0.1565-135
      Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansDetroit Tigers49.05%0.0055+105
      Texas Rangers vs Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers51.96%0.0653+115
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds52.43%-0.0301-115
      Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets53.99%-0.0282-125
      New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.48%0.0069-105
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox54.31%0.2221+125
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersPhiladelphia Phillies44.26%0.3279+200
      Houston Astros vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.56%0.2589-105
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals57.39%0.2338+115
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles AngelsTampa Bay Rays62.24%-0.0104-170
      Colorado Rockies vs AthleticsColorado Rockies63.55%0.0207+180
      Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.25%-0.0397-130

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates52.40%
      Seattle Mariners vs Washington NationalsSeattle Mariners55.63%
      San Diego Padres vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles66.47%
      Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians50.95%
      Texas Rangers vs Boston Red SoxTexas Rangers51.96%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds52.43%
      Atlanta Braves vs New York MetsNew York Mets53.99%
      New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.48%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox54.31%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers55.74%
      Houston Astros vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals64.56%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota TwinsSt. Louis Cardinals57.39%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles AngelsTampa Bay Rays62.24%
      Colorado Rockies vs AthleticsAthletics63.55%
      Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.25%

    • 6/11/26 Recap

      Pretty mid day. White Sox got postponed

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 5/7
      Sportsbook favorites won: 5/7
      Picks won: 2/4
      Net Units: -0.33u
      ROI: -8.25%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 23/45
      Sportsbook favorites won: 23/45
      Picks won: 11/18
      Net Units: +3.77u
      ROI: 20.94%

    • 6/11/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 4.5%
      • Detroit Tigers ML -125, 7.5%
      • Miami Marlins ML -115, 15%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 6.5%
      • Chicago White Sox ML +100, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals50.66%0.1043+120
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers62.32%0.1217-125
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins67.42%0.2607-115
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals56.47%0.0333-120
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies47.32%0.0647+125
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates49.01%0.1763+140
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles55.38%0.0799-105
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*Chicago White Sox54.77%0.0954+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsSt. Louis Cardinals50.66%
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers62.32%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins67.42%
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals56.47%
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs52.68%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers50.99%
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles55.38%
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*Chicago White Sox54.77%

      *Missing White Sox starting pitcher

    • 6/10/26 Recap

      Day was full of comebacks that went against my model.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 5/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
      Picks won: 1/3
      Net Units: -0.30u
      ROI: -10.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 18/38
      Sportsbook favorites won: 18/38
      Picks won: 9/14
      Net Units: +4.10u
      ROI: 29.29%

    • 6/10/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 8.5%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +170, 7%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -110, 14.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays64.28%0.0606-155
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees51.28%0.0256+100
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals50.62%0.0124+100
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds51.43%0.2342+140
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles49.27%-0.0145+100
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates46.05%0.2433+170
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers*Minnesota Twins41.33%-0.0288+135
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsArizona Diamondbacks66.21%0.2647-110
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies62.26%0.0272-155
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsNew York Mets60.26%0.0305-140
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals52.39%0.0478+100
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*Chicago White Sox48.15%0.0834+125
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs64.10%0.0063-175
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsAthletics51.91%-0.0084-110
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros54.32%0.0864+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays64.28%
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees51.28%
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals50.62%
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds51.43%
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesSeattle Mariners50.73%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesLos Angeles Dodgers53.95%
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit Tigers*Detroit Tigers58.67%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsArizona Diamondbacks66.21%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies62.26%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsNew York Mets60.26%
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals52.39%
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White Sox*Atlanta Braves51.85%
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs64.10%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsAthletics51.91%
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros54.32%

      *Missing Twins and White Sox starting pitchers

    • 6/9/26 Recap

      Amazing day. White Sox clutch was insane. Braden Montgomery is him.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 9/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
      Picks won: 7/8
      Net Units: +5.63u
      ROI: 70.38%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 13/23
      Sportsbook favorites won: 11/23
      Picks won: 8/11
      Net Units: +4.40u
      ROI: 40.00%

    • 6/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 8%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 8.5%
      • Detroit Tigers ML -135, 8.5%
      • Miami Marlins ML -125, 7%
      • Chicago White Sox ML +135, 5%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 12.5%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 10.5%
      • Washington Nationals ML -105, 10.5

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.00%0.0000+100
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.00%0.1461-110
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.65%0.1583-110
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers64.80%0.1276-135
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins61.72%0.1109-125
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees63.05%0.0970-135
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies52.34%-0.0422-120
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsNew York Mets53.76%-0.0323-125
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers54.93%-0.0113-125
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox48.52%0.1401+135
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies46.12%0.0376+125
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.84%0.2677+105
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds64.19%0.1746-120
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals61.67%0.2026-105
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsAthletics50.18%-0.0215-105

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.00%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.00%
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays60.65%
      Minnesota Twins vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers64.80%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins61.72%
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansNew York Yankees63.05%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies52.34%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs New York MetsNew York Mets53.76%
      Texas Rangers vs Kansas City RoyalsTexas Rangers54.93%
      Atlanta Braves vs Chicago White SoxAtlanta Braves51.48%
      Chicago Cubs vs Colorado RockiesChicago Cubs53.88%
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels61.84%
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds64.19%
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals61.67%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsAthletics50.18%

    • 6/8/26 Recap

      Not a great day tbh. Reds choked hard.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 4/8
      Sportsbook favorites won: 5/8
      Picks won: 1/3
      Net Units: -1.23u
      ROI: -41.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 4/8
      Sportsbook favorites won: 5/8
      Picks won: 1/3
      Net Units: -1.23u
      ROI:-41.00%

    • 6/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Toronto Blue Jays ML +155, 3.5%
      • Houston Astros ML -130, 9.5%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML +120, 21.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles*Seattle Mariners50.34%N/AN/A
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox53.31%-0.0138-115
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.74%-0.0428-115
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays43.77%0.1117+155
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros64.67%0.1447-130
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds69.01%0.5045+120
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsWashington Nationals45.37%0.0662+135
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsAthletics45.32%0.0651+135

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Seattle Mariners vs Baltimore Orioles*Seattle Mariners50.34%
      Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox53.31%
      New York Yankees vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.74%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Toronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia Phillies56.23%
      Houston Astros vs Los Angeles AngelsHouston Astros64.67%
      Cincinnati Reds vs San Diego PadresCincinnati Reds69.01%
      Washington Nationals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.63%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs AthleticsMilwaukee Brewers54.68%

      *Missing Orioles starting pitcher

    • 6/7/26 Recap

      Great 67 day and end of week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
      Picks won: 4/7
      Net Units: +1.71u
      ROI: 24.43%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 44/92
      Sportsbook favorites won: 44/92
      Picks won: 21/46
      Net Units: +1.76u
      ROI: 3.83%