Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 10/6/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -135, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers60.23%0.0480-135
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs47.77%0.0033+110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers60.23%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.23%

  • 10/5/25 Recap

    I still think my model might not properly generalize, but that’s the first up day.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/2
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/2
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.10u
    ROI: 110%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 6/13
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
    Picks won: 3/8
    Net Units: -2.20u
    ROI: -27.50%

  • 10/5/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +110, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays42.04%-0.0332+130
    Detroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners53.90%0.1318+110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Yankees57.96%
    Detroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners53.90%

  • 10/2/25 Recap

    Numbers aside, intuitively, it would make sense that my model wouldn’t work as well for post-season since starting pitcher is valued a lot more in the post-season than in the regular season.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/3
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: -0.13u
    ROI: -6.50%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/11
    Sportsbook favorites won: 8/11
    Picks won: 2/7
    Net Units: -3.30u
    ROI: -47.14%

  • 10/2/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML +140, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.28%-0.0409-125
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.32%0.1281-115
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox51.82%0.2438+140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.28%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.32%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox51.82%

  • 10/1/25 Recap

    Yea the model isn’t looking good for the post-season tbh. Hopefully just getting unlucky right now; it’d be good if the model generalized to post season.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 0/2
    Net Units: -2u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 4/8
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/8
    Picks won: 1/5
    Net Units: -3.17u
    ROI: -63.40%

  • 10/1/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Chicago Cubs ML -110, 7.5%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +225, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.39%0.0205-145
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.67%0.1396-110
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox44.68%0.1170+150
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds46.20%0.5015+225

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians60.39%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs59.67%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees55.32%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers53.80%

  • 9/30/25 Recap

    Not the best day for the model or picks. I honestly doubt that the model trained off of the regular season games will properly generalize for the post-season games, but we’ll see.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -1.17u
    ROI: -39.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/4
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/4
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -1.17u
    ROI: -39.00%

  • 9/30/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Cleveland Guardians ML +140, 7.5%
    • Chicago Cubs ML -120, 5%
    • Cincinnati Reds ML +180, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.78%0.2427+140
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.12%0.0636-120
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesBoston Red Sox48.69%0.0225+110
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds51.07%0.4301+180

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.78%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs58.12%
    Boston Red Sox vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees51.31%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Los Angeles DodgersCincinnati Reds51.07%

  • Post-Season Plans

    I may post picks for the matches in the post-season. I will also be considering futures. As of currently, my top 3 to win the world series according to my model are the Dodgers, Cubs, and Mariners.