Another day of trolled leads. Horrible last couple days to end the week going into all-star week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/10
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -30.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/97
Sportsbook favorites won: 55/97
Picks won: 21/48
Net Units: -3.98u
ROI: -8.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.39% | 0.0536 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | 64.34% | 0.4477 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 72.00% | 0.3464 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.45% | 0.1225 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 53.60% | 0.0238 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.33% | 0.1210 | -145 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.55% | 0.1456 | +110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 54.12% | 0.0121 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels | 62.69% | 0.3479 | +115 |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Athletics | 52.15% | 0.0326 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 52.69% | 0.1327 | +115 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 45.88% | 0.0221 | +120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 53.54% | 0.1672 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.95% | 0.4265 | +180 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 72.01% | 0.2531 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.39% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | 64.34% |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 72.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.45% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 53.60% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.55% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 54.12% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels | 62.69% |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Athletics | 52.15% |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 52.69% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.12% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 53.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.95% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 72.01% |
Just about every team I had today trolled their leads away. Genuinely so disheartening.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16
Picks won: 3/10
Net Units: -2.55u
ROI: -25.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 46/82
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/82
Picks won: 18/38
Net Units: -0.98u
ROI: -2.58%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% | 0.1071 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 69.63% | 0.0862 | -180 |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.42% | 0.0335 | -125 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.37% | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 44.64% | 0.0044 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.99% | 0.5369 | +165 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 60.29% | 0.3565 | +125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 56.57% | 0.1031 | -105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Cleveland Guardians | 46.24% | 0.0404 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.57% | 0.1897 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% | -0.0123 | -155 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 57.36% | 0.1472 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.24% | 0.2013 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 58.65% | 0.1202 | -110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.59% | 0.1956 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.02% | 0.4631 | +225 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 69.63% |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.42% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.37% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 55.36% |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.99% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 60.29% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 56.57% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.76% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.57% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 57.36% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.24% |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 58.65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.59% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.98% |
Every time I have the Nats they throw away the game in the last two innings. Up by a run and the manager decides to put in a 14 era closer. Unbelievable. Also, Brewers game moved to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +1.63u
ROI: 23.29%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/66
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/66
Picks won: 15/28
Net Units: +1.57u
ROI: 5.61%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 65.45% | 0.2108 | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% | 0.1071 | +105 |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.58% | 0.2731 | +125 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | 46.82% | 0.1003 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 59.78% | 0.1060 | -115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.09% | 0.1362 | -120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.94% | 0.2067 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 54.74% | 0.2316 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.20% | -0.0391 | -175 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 46.99% | 0.0245 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 67.43% | 0.0923 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 45.36% | 0.0660 | +135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 57.80% | 0.0405 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.59% | 0.3930 | +170 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 48.62% | 0.0940 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 65.45% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.58% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.18% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Chicago Cubs | 59.78% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.09% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.94% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 54.74% |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 61.20% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 53.01% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 67.43% |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 54.64% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 57.80% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.59% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.38% |
Angels had so many chances and just blew it. Seems like these late-night close games never go in my favor.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/13
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.71u
ROI: 10.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 32/52
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/52
Picks won: 11/21
Net Units: -0.06u
ROI: -0.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.18% | 0.0836 | +100 |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.05% | -0.0189 | -145 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays* | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.36% | 0.1074 | -160 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.26% | 0.1551 | -130 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 56.41% | 0.1846 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | 65.36% | 0.2940 | +100 |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 68.85% | 0.1774 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 49.42% | 0.1121 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | 63.82% | 0.0275 | -165 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.45% | 0.0679 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 53.08% | 0.1677 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 53.73% | -0.0489 | -130 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants* | Colorado Rockies | 47.87% | 0.0435 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.18% |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.05% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays* | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.36% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.26% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 56.41% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | 65.36% |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 68.85% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | Seattle Mariners | 50.58% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds | Philadelphia Phillies | 63.82% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.45% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 53.08% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 53.73% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants* | San Francisco Giants | 52.13% |
*Missing starting pitcher
Kalshi didn’t let me get Angels at the line I wanted and I missed it. Pretty miffed about that. Also, Rockies won the only match of the series I didn’t bet on lmao. They played really well today but just couldn’t get the RISP in.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: -0.60u
ROI: -10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/39
Sportsbook favorites won: 24/39
Picks won: 7/14
Net Units: -0.79u
ROI: -5.64%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.88% | -0.0403 | -117 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% | 0.0652 | -125 |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 67.91% | 0.0933 | -165 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.28% | -0.0143 | -117 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 55.35% | 0.1347 | +105 |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 73.22% | 0.2740 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Houston Astros | 50.84% | 0.1082 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | Kansas City Royals | 45.50% | 0.0238 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds* | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% | -0.0410 | -145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 50.51% | 0.0355 | +105 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.44% | 0.0288 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.51% | 0.1410 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Los Angeles Angels | 48.70% | 0.1446 | +135 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 57.92% | 0.6796 | +190 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.48% | 0.0559 | -145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.88% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% |
| Athletics vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 67.91% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 53.28% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 55.35% |
| New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 73.22% |
| Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals | Houston Astros | 50.84% |
| Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 54.50% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds* | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins | Cleveland Guardians | 50.51% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.44% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.51% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.30% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 57.92% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.48% |
*Missing Phillies starting pitcher
Bayesball Picks 