A lot of close games today that went poorly. Giants moved to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/14
Picks won: 2/6
Net Units: -2.05u
ROI: -34.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 14/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 19/24
Picks won: 3/9
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -33.33%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.19% | 0.4257 | +145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Kansas City Royals | 52.65% | -0.0057 | +110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox* | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.05% | 0.0440 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 48.17% | 0.0839 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% | 0.1634 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 51.94% | 0.2205 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 55.52% | 0.2493 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.39% | 0.0062 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Colorado Rockies | 49.52% | 0.0473 | +165 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.27% | 0.0355 | -145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 46.81% | 0.1001 | +135 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 58.07% | 0.1091 | -110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.30% | 0.0399 | +120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | 45.78% | 0.0300 | +125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.04% | 0.2384 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.19% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox* | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.05% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.83% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 51.94% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 55.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.39% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.48% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.27% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.19% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 58.07% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.22% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.04% |
*Missing Blue Jays pitcher
Both losses were chokes unfortunately. It is what it is.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/10
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/10
Picks won: 1/3
Net Units: -0.95u
ROI: -31.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 38.63% | 0.0238 | +165 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 61.09% | 0.0324 | -145 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals* | San Diego Padres | 44.38% | -0.0014 | +125 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Colorado Rockies | 36.10% | -0.0254 | +170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers* | Minnesota Twins | 40.38% | -0.0106 | +145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 64.75% | 0.3274 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 62.94% | 0.3218 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.07% | 0.0273 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.19% | 0.3440 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 61.37% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 61.09% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals* | St. Louis Cardinals | 55.62% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 63.90% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers* | Texas Rangers | 59.62% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 64.75% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 62.94% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.07% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.19% |
*Missing Padres and Twins starting pitchers
Alright day to end the week, would’ve been great if the Cards didn’t choke.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +1.13u
ROI: 18.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 43/89
Sportsbook favorites won: 48/89
Picks won: 18/36
Net Units: +1.01u
ROI: 2.81%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 43.90% | 0.0317 | +135 |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 67.89% | 0.1609 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 61.16% | 0.0642 | -135 |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 47.21% | -0.0321 | +105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.52% | 0.2324 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% | 0.0247 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | Atlanta Braves | 48.16% | -0.0128 | +105 |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Houston Astros | 48.60% | -0.0281 | +100 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.68% | 0.2027 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.11% | 0.4603 | +165 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.19% | -0.0409 | -130 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 42.29% | 0.1208 | +165 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 57.42% | -0.0009 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.51% | 0.2171 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 49.02% | -0.0294 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.10% |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 67.89% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 61.16% |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 52.79% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.52% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.84% |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.40% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.68% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.11% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.71% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 57.42% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.51% |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.98% |
Pretty bad streak.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.88u
ROI: -41.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 37/75
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/75
Picks won: 15/30
Net Units: -0.12u
ROI: -0.40%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.42% | 0.1485 | -115 |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 55.13% | 0.0309 | -115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 61.96% | 0.1153 | -125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 53.75% | 0.0749 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 60.78% | 0.2035 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 62.53% | 0.0692 | -140 |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 52.16% | 0.0328 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets* | Atlanta Braves | 52.60% | 0.0414 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 48.92% | 0.3209 | +170 |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.52% | 0.0004 | -130 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 41.59% | 0.0190 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 59.97% | 0.4094 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.79% | 0.1245 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.23% | 0.0185 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.42% |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Yankees | 55.13% |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 61.96% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 53.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 60.78% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 50.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 62.53% |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 52.16% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets* | Atlanta Braves | 52.60% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.08% |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 56.52% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.41% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 59.97% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 56.79% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.23% |
*Missing starting pitcher
Could’ve been a good day, but Stanek and the Cards manager completely blew that game.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.01u
ROI: -20.20%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/60
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/60
Picks won: 13/23
Net Units: +2.76u
ROI: 12.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Miami Marlins | 47.60% | 0.0378 | +120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 44.37% | -0.0016 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.47% | 0.1565 | -135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Detroit Tigers | 49.05% | 0.0055 | +105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 51.96% | 0.0653 | +115 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 52.43% | -0.0301 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.99% | -0.0282 | -125 |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.48% | 0.0069 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 54.31% | 0.2221 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Philadelphia Phillies | 44.26% | 0.3279 | +200 |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 64.56% | 0.2589 | -105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.39% | 0.2338 | +115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.24% | -0.0104 | -170 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Colorado Rockies | 63.55% | 0.0207 | +180 |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 54.25% | -0.0397 | -130 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.40% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Washington Nationals | Seattle Mariners | 55.63% |
| San Diego Padres vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.47% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 50.95% |
| Texas Rangers vs Boston Red Sox | Texas Rangers | 51.96% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 52.43% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.99% |
| New York Yankees vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.48% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 54.31% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 55.74% |
| Houston Astros vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 64.56% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Minnesota Twins | St. Louis Cardinals | 57.39% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Angels | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.24% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Athletics | Athletics | 63.55% |
| Chicago Cubs vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 54.25% |
Bayesball Picks 