Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Recent posts

  • 10/12/25 Recap

    Seems like the models been good in these past few games. Although, I did miss a few days.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.40u
    ROI: 140.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 13/21
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/21
    Picks won: 8/14
    Net Units: 1.80u
    ROI: 12.86%

  • 10/12/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +140, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners52.29%0.2549+140

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners52.29%

  • 10/10/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.10u
    ROI: 110.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 12/20
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/20
    Picks won: 7/13
    Net Units: 0.40u
    ROI: 3.07%

  • 10/10/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +110, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners52.58%0.1042+110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners52.58%

  • 10/9/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/2
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.05u
    ROI: 2.50%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 11/19
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/19
    Picks won: 6/12
    Net Units: -0.70u
    ROI: -5.83%

  • 10/9/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Philadelphia Phillies ML +115, 5%
    • Chicago Cubs ML +105, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies51.75%0.1126+115
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs56.36%0.1553+105

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies51.75%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs56.36%

  • 10/7/25 Recap

    Another slight up day for the model.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/2
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +0.71u
    ROI: 71.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/17
    Sportsbook favorites won: 12/17
    Picks won: 5/10
    Net Units: -0.75u
    ROI: -7.50%

  • 10/7/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML -140

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners61.25%0.0457-140
    Toronto Blue Jays vs New York YankeesToronto Blue Jays43.31%-0.0039+130

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Detroit TigersSeattle Mariners61.25%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees56.69%

  • 10/6/25 Recap

    Model doing quite a bit better now.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/2
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/2
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +0.74u
    ROI: 74.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
    Picks won: 4/9
    Net Units: -1.46u
    ROI: -16.22%

  • 10/6/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -135, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers60.23%0.0480-135
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs47.77%0.0033+110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia PhilliesLos Angeles Dodgers60.23%
    Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers52.23%