Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Detroit Tigers ML -165, 7.5%
• Miami Marlins ML +105, 6.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 18.5%
• Houston Astros ML +120, 4.5%
• Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 10%
• Colorado Rockies ML +190, 18%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	Toronto Blue Jays	51.88%	-0.0403	-117
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	59.18%	0.0652	-125
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	67.91%	0.0933	-165
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	53.28%	-0.0143	-117
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	55.35%	0.1347	+105
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.22%	0.2740	-135
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	50.84%	0.1082	+120
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	Kansas City Royals	45.50%	0.0238	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%	-0.0410	-145
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	50.51%	0.0355	+105
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	51.44%	0.0288	+100
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	67.51%	0.1410	-145
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	48.70%	0.1446	+135
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	57.92%	0.6796	+190
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	62.48%	0.0559	-145

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants	Toronto Blue Jays	51.88%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	59.18%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	67.91%
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	53.28%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	55.35%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	73.22%
Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals	Houston Astros	50.84%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	54.50%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cincinnati Reds	56.75%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Cleveland Guardians	50.51%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	51.44%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	67.51%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	51.30%
Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Colorado Rockies	57.92%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	62.48%

*Missing Phillies starting pitcher