Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 8/9/26 Recap

      Really solid day and week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +2.73uROI: 39.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 57/94Sportsbook favorites won: 52/94Picks won: 29/48Net Units: +11.57uROI: 24.10%

    • 8/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Toronto Blue Jays ML +170, 7.5% Miami Marlins ML -150, 7% Kansas City Royals ML +135, 10% Baltimore Orioles ML +110, 12% Detroit Tigers ML -125, 10% Arizona Diamondbacks ML +125, 5% Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 9.5% Comparison…

    • 8/8/26 Recap

      Another solid day. Was stuck on whether to bet both Athletics and Jays and now I’m feeling a bit dumb for not pulling the trigger. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.50uROI: 8.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 48/79Sportsbook favorites won: 45/79Picks won: 24/41Net Units: +8.84uROI: 21.56%

    • 8/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy New York Yankees ML +125, 5% Los Angeles Angels ML +135, 11.5% Washington Nationals ML +125, 5% Houston Astros ML +100, 8.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 13.5% Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 11.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…

    • 8/7/26 Recap

      Solid day but sucks that the Os and Marlins both choked like that. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/9Net Units: +2.28uROI: 25.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 42/64Sportsbook favorites won: 38/64Picks won: 21/35Net Units: +8.34uROI: 23.83%

    • 8/7/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy New York Mets ML +115, 6% Toronto Blue Jays ML +185, 6.5% Washington Nationals ML -115, 30.5% Athletics ML +225, 6.5% Miami Marlins ML -155, 30% Kansas City Royals ML +145, 9.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 6% Arizona Diamondbacks…

    • 8/6/26 Recap

      Pretty good day. Shame Royals choked. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.62uROI: 8.86% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 34/49Sportsbook favorites won: 31/49Picks won: 16/26Net Units: +6.06uROI: 23.31%

    • 8/6/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Cincinnati Reds ML -165, 9% New York Mets ML -105, 4.5% Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115, 5% Chicago Cubs ML +105, 5.5% Detroit Tigers ML +105, 6% Washington Nationals ML +280, 11.5% Kansas City Royals ML -125, 7% Comparison to…

    • 8/5/26 Recap

      Solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 12/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.73uROI: 10.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 26/38Sportsbook favorites won: 25/38Picks won: 12/19Net Units: +5.44uROI: 28.63%

    • 8/5/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Chicago Cubs ML -120, 8% Tampa Bay Rays ML -160, 6.5% Washington Nationals ML +145, 16% Miami Marlins ML +110, 6.5% Kansas City Royals ML -120, 9% San Diego Padres ML -110, 7% Detroit Tigers ML +125, 6.5% Comparison…