Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 8/9/26 Recap

      Really solid day and week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +2.73uROI: 39.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 57/94Sportsbook favorites won: 52/94Picks won: 29/48Net Units: +11.57uROI: 24.10%

    • 8/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 50.92% -0.0274 -110 Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 72.56% 0.0158 -250 New York Mets vs…

    • 8/8/26 Recap

      Another solid day. Was stuck on whether to bet both Athletics and Jays and now I’m feeling a bit dumb for not pulling the trigger. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.50uROI: 8.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 48/79Sportsbook favorites won: 45/79Picks won: 24/41Net Units: +8.84uROI: 21.56%

    • 8/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 50.00% 0.1250 +125 Athletics vs Boston Red Sox Athletics 35.63% 0.1402 +220 Los Angeles Angels vs…

    • 8/7/26 Recap

      Solid day but sucks that the Os and Marlins both choked like that. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 5/9Net Units: +2.28uROI: 25.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 42/64Sportsbook favorites won: 38/64Picks won: 21/35Net Units: +8.34uROI: 23.83%

    • 8/7/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates New York Mets 52.90% 0.1375 +115 Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies Toronto Blue Jays 43.37% 0.2359 +185 Cincinnati…

    • 8/6/26 Recap

      Pretty good day. Shame Royals choked. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/11Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.62uROI: 8.86% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 34/49Sportsbook favorites won: 31/49Picks won: 16/26Net Units: +6.06uROI: 23.31%

    • 8/6/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 66.46% -0.0031 -200 Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 68.85% 0.1084 -165 New York Mets vs Cleveland…

    • 8/5/26 Recap

      Solid day today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 12/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.73uROI: 10.43% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 26/38Sportsbook favorites won: 25/38Picks won: 12/19Net Units: +5.44uROI: 28.63%

    • 8/5/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros Houston Astros 68.00% 0.0472 -185 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 61.69% 0.1289 -120 San Francisco Giants…