Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/16/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies New York Mets 65.46% 0.3746 +110 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability: Matchup Predicted Winner Probability New York…

    • 7/12/26 Recap

      Another day of trolled leads. Horrible last couple days to end the week going into all-star week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/10Net Units: -3.00uROI: -30.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/97Sportsbook favorites won: 55/97Picks won: 21/48Net Units: -3.98uROI: -8.29%

    • 7/12/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers 51.39% 0.0536 +105 Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles Kansas City Royals 64.34% 0.4477 +125 New York Yankees…

    • 7/11/26 Recap

      Just about every team I had today trolled their leads away. Genuinely so disheartening. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16Picks won: 3/10Net Units: -2.55uROI: -25.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 46/82Sportsbook favorites won: 47/82Picks won: 18/38Net Units: -0.98uROI: -2.58%

    • 7/11/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers 54.00% 0.1071 +105 Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 69.63% 0.0862 -180 Athletics vs Chicago White…

    • 7/10/26 Recap

      Every time I have the Nats they throw away the game in the last two innings. Up by a run and the manager decides to put in a 14 era closer. Unbelievable. Also, Brewers game moved to tmrw. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/14Sportsbook favorites won: 5/14Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +1.63uROI: 23.29% Weekly Stats: Model…

    • 7/10/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 65.45% 0.2108 -115 Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates Milwaukee Brewers 54.00% 0.1071 +105 New York Yankees vs Washington…

    • 7/9/26 Recap

      Angels had so many chances and just blew it. Seems like these late-night close games never go in my favor. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/13Sportsbook favorites won: 9/13Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.71uROI: 10.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 32/52Sportsbook favorites won: 33/52Picks won: 11/21Net Units: -0.06uROI: -0.29%

    • 7/9/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 54.18% 0.0836 +100 Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets New York Mets 58.05% -0.0189 -145 New York…

    • 7/8/26 Recap

      Kalshi didn’t let me get Angels at the line I wanted and I missed it. Pretty miffed about that. Also, Rockies won the only match of the series I didn’t bet on lmao. They played really well today but just couldn’t get the RISP in. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won:…