Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 5/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 52.91% 0.0581 +100 San Diego Padres vs…

    • 5/29/26 Recap

      Detroit Tigers loss was really stupid. So was the Diamondbacks one, but I had less expectations there. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/5Net Units: -1.02uROI: -20.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 31/64Sportsbook favorites won: 46/64Picks won: 8/21Net Units: -5.30uROI: -25.24%

    • 5/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds Atlanta Braves 58.70% -0.0314 -155 San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals…

    • 5/28/26 Recap

      Hitting a little bit of an unlucky streak unfortunately. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 1/6Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/49Sportsbook favorites won: 25/49Picks won: 6/16Net Units: -4.28uROI: -26.75%

    • 5/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 66.74% 0.1613 -135 Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White…

    • 5/27/26 Recap

      Accurate on everything except my picks somehow lmao. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 11/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 1/4Net Units: -2.38uROI: -59.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/43Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43Picks won: 6/14Net Units: -2.28uROI: -16.29%

    • 5/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays Miami Marlins 41.89% -0.0155 +135 Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians…

    • 5/26/26 Recap

      Solid day today. Covers yesterday’s loss. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 3/3Net Units: +2.60uROI: 86.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 11/28Sportsbook favorites won: 12/28Picks won: 5/10Net Units: +0.10uROI: 1.00%

    • 5/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ. Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians Washington Nationals 57.81% 0.2428 +115 Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles…

    • 5/25/26 Recap

      Pretty awful start to the week but we still chilling cuz of last week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/13Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.50uROI: -35.71% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 4/13Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.50uROI: -35.71%