Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/8/26 Recap

      Kalshi didn’t let me get Angels at the line I wanted and I missed it. Pretty miffed about that. Also, Rockies won the only match of the series I didn’t bet on lmao. They played really well today but just couldn’t get the RISP in. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won:…

    • 7/8/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Toronto Blue Jays vs San Francisco Giants Toronto Blue Jays 51.88% -0.0403 -117 Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 59.18% 0.0652 -125 Athletics vs…

    • 7/7/26 Recap

      Mid day. We take it though Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/16Sportsbook favorites won: 11/16Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.76uROI: 15.20% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/24Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.19uROI: -2.38%

    • 7/7/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Predicted Winner Probability EV Odds Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals* Milwaukee Brewers 57.36% N/A N/A Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles Chicago Cubs 59.30% 0.0971 -115 Athletics vs Detroit Tigers Detroit…

    • 7/6/26 Recap

      I was really hoping I would have a comeback go my way for once, but the Rockies couldn’t finish the deal. Pretty bad start to the week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/8Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 5/8Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8Picks won: 1/3Net Units: -0.95uROI: -31.67%

    • 7/6/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals Philadelphia Phillies 69.70% 0.0107 -220 New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 53.17% 0.1165 +105 Houston…

    • 7/5/26 Recap

      Diamondbacks had the filthiest loss I’ve seen in a while. Also, Cardinal’s manager is an idiot, but we’ve known this for a while. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.12uROI: 2.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/94Sportsbook favorites won: 54/94Picks won: 21/44Net Units: -2.00uROI: -4.55%

    • 7/5/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves New York Mets 68.02% 0.2721 -115 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 59.43% 0.0044 -145 Baltimore Orioles vs…

    • 7/4/26 Recap

      Knew this would happen but ofc I got touched today. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -3.25uROI: -40.62% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 43/79Sportsbook favorites won: 47/79Picks won: 18/38Net Units: -2.12uROI: -5.58%

    • 7/4/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates 62.78% -0.0018 -170 Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees Minnesota Twins 51.00% 0.1984 +135 Detroit Tigers vs Texas…