Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 8/4/26 Recap

      Solid day but seeing the Giants troll every day like that is painful. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 12/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.82uROI: 47.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 16/23Sportsbook favorites won: 13/23Picks won: 8/12Net Units: +4.71uROI: 39.25%

    • 8/4/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 70.34% 0.1747 -150 New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians New York Mets 46.86% 0.0543 +125 Athletics vs…

    • 8/3/26 Recap

      The Nats bullpen is filled with terrorists. Good day nonetheless though. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 3/8Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +1.89uROI: 31.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 4/8Sportsbook favorites won: 3/8Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +1.89uROI: 31.50%

    • 8/3/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals 69.02% 0.5529 +125 St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 67.48% -0.0216 -220 Pittsburgh Pirates…

    • 8/2/26 Recap

      A pretty good day to take off the heat. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 5/8Net Units: +3.02uROI: 37.75% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 51/97Sportsbook favorites won: 56/97Picks won: 21/45Net Units: -1.21uROI: -2.69%

    • 8/2/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 55.54% 0.2496 +125 Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves Washington Nationals 58.98% 0.2091 +105 St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto…

    • 8/1/26 Recap

      Horrendous start to August. Skubal to the Dodgers too. Worst day of baseball ever. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 5/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -4.67uROI: 58.38% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 41/82Sportsbook favorites won: 46/82Picks won: 16/37Net Units: -4.23uROI: -11.43%

    • 8/1/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 45.92% 0.0010 +120 Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners Minnesota Twins 41.75% -0.0189 +135 Chicago White…

    • 7/31/26 Recap

      Awful day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 2/7Net Units: -2.74uROI: 39.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 36/67Sportsbook favorites won: 36/67Picks won: 14/29Net Units: +0.44uROI: 1.52%

    • 7/31/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs New York Yankees 51.79% 0.2171 +135 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds Pittsburgh Pirates 60.33% 0.0498 -135 Philadelphia Phillies vs…