Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 7/3/26 Recap

      Good day, but who knows how long it’ll last. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.92uROI: 18.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 35/64Sportsbook favorites won: 37/64Picks won: 16/30Net Units: +1.13uROI: 3.67%

    • 7/3/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs Chicago Cubs 57.51% 0.0006 -135 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals Pittsburgh Pirates 43.30% -0.0041 +130 Minnesota Twins vs New…

    • 7/2/26 Recap

      Can’t have a good week without a day nuking all the progress. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 3/9Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9Picks won: 0/3Net Units: -3.00uROI: -100.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/51Sportsbook favorites won: 29/51Picks won: 13/25Net Units: +0.21uROI: 0.84%

    • 7/2/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 47.70% 0.0018 +110 Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 71.30% 0.0909 -190 Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies…

    • 7/1/26 Recap

      Pretty solid day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/14Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14Picks won: 5/8Net Units: +1.24uROI: 15.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 25/42Sportsbook favorites won: 25/42Picks won: 13/22Net Units: +3.21uROI: 14.59%

    • 7/1/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles* Baltimore Orioles 63.82% 0.0913 -140 Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 59.74% 0.1410 -110 Washington Nationals vs Boston…

    • 6/30/26 Recap

      The Giants stink. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.10uROI: -1.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 18/28Sportsbook favorites won: 18/28Picks won: 8/14Net Units: +1.97uROI: 14.07%

    • 6/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 49.10% 0.1047 +125 Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51.05% 0.0466 +105 Pittsburgh Pirates vs…

    • 6/29/26 Recap

      Pretty good as far as Mondays go. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.07uROI: 34.50% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 10/13Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.07uROI: 34.50%

    • 6/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles Chicago White Sox 50.72% 0.0905 +115 Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates 64.01% 0.2226 -110 Detroit Tigers vs…