Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    Category: Uncategorized

    • 7/30/26 Recap

      That Royals choke was disgusting. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.87uROI: 17.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/52Sportsbook favorites won: 28/52Picks won: 12/22Net Units: +3.18uROI: 14.45%

    • 7/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Kansas City Royals ML +120, 8% Chicago Cubs ML +100, 10.5% New York Mets ML -130, 7.5% San Francisco Giants ML +110, 4.5% Seattle Mariners ML +125, 6% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team…

    • 7/29/26 Recap

      Cubs choked. Pretty good day though. Amazing Os comeback. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.09uROI: 29.86% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/42Sportsbook favorites won: 21/42Picks won: 9/17Net Units: +2.31uROI: 13.59%

    • 7/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Miami Marlins ML +145, 4.5% Baltimore Orioles ML +145, 7.5% New York Mets ML +135, 8.5% (2nd) Kansas City Royals ML +145, 11.5% Chicago Cubs ML -120, 8.5% Houston Astros ML -135, 9% Seattle Mariners ML +135, 7% Comparison…

    • 7/28/26 Recap

      Feels like I can never have a good day without the next day ruining it. Crazy choke by the Pirates and Royals. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 0/3Net Units: -3.00uROI: -100% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/26Sportsbook favorites won: 13/26Picks won: 5/10Net Units: +0.22uROI: 2.20%

    • 7/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Pittsburgh Pirates ML -115, 6.5% Kansas City Royals ML +135, 4.5% Boston Red Sox ML -150, 8% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians 42.23%…

    • 7/27/26 Recap

      Angels trolled unfortunately but still an amazing day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/11Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +3.22uROI: 46.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/11Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +3.22uROI: 46.00%

    • 7/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 9.5% Miami Marlins ML +145, 6.5% Washington Nationals ML -135, 20% New York Mets ML -105, 8.5% New York Yankees ML -145, 12% Los Angeles Angels ML +100, 18.5% San Francisco Giants ML +115, 5%…

    • 7/26/26 Recap

      Great day but hate to see another Orioles choke. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.95uROI: 15.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/95Sportsbook favorites won: 50/95Picks won: 20/38Net Units: +2.90uROI: 7.63%

    • 7/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 12.5% Baltimore Orioles ML -110, 14% Kansas City Royals ML +155, 7.5% New York Mets ML +125, 6% Cincinnati Reds ML +115, 9% New York Yankees ML +155, 10.5% Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and…