Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/30/26 Recap

      That Royals choke was disgusting. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/10Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +0.87uROI: 17.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 30/52Sportsbook favorites won: 28/52Picks won: 12/22Net Units: +3.18uROI: 14.45%

    • 7/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 65.09% 0.0869 -150 Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins Kansas City Royals 54.26% 0.1937 +120 New…

    • 7/29/26 Recap

      Cubs choked. Pretty good day though. Amazing Os comeback. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +2.09uROI: 29.86% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/42Sportsbook favorites won: 21/42Picks won: 9/17Net Units: +2.31uROI: 13.59%

    • 7/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 46.12% 0.1299 +145 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 56.96% -0.0089 -135 Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington…

    • 7/28/26 Recap

      Feels like I can never have a good day without the next day ruining it. Crazy choke by the Pirates and Royals. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 0/3Net Units: -3.00uROI: -100% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 15/26Sportsbook favorites won: 13/26Picks won: 5/10Net Units: +0.22uROI: 2.20%

    • 7/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds Cleveland Guardians 42.23% -0.0052 +135 Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles 45.31% -0.0123 +120 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates…

    • 7/27/26 Recap

      Angels trolled unfortunately but still an amazing day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/11Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +3.22uROI: 46.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 7/11Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11Picks won: 5/7Net Units: +3.22uROI: 46.00%

    • 7/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners 56.16% -0.0396 -140 Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers Baltimore Orioles 59.69% 0.1819 +100 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates…

    • 7/26/26 Recap

      Great day but hate to see another Orioles choke. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: +0.95uROI: 15.83% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 50/95Sportsbook favorites won: 50/95Picks won: 20/38Net Units: +2.90uROI: 7.63%

    • 7/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 58.37% 0.0506 -125 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Arizona Diamondbacks 65.28% 0.2208 -115 Chicago Cubs vs…