Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -115, 6.5%
• New York Mets ML +135, 8.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML -150, 8%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	Cleveland Guardians	42.23%	-0.0052	+135
Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	Baltimore Orioles	45.31%	-0.0123	+120
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.60%	0.1146	-115
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	65.62%	0.0105	-185
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	57.65%	0.0780	-115
Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	Toronto Blue Jays	44.54%	-0.0291	+120
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cleveland Guardians	53.19%	N/A	N/A
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	52.24%	0.2277	+135
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Kansas City Royals	47.95%	0.1267	+135
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	44.84%	-0.0359	+115
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Chicago Cubs	55.20%	0.0323	-115
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	53.06%	0.0135	-110
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	Boston Red Sox	66.26%	0.1066	-150
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	68.82%	0.0185	-210
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	42.89%	-0.0349	+125
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Seattle Mariners	44.49%	0.1345	+155

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds	Cincinnati Reds	57.67%
Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	54.69%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	59.60%
Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	65.62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	57.65%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	55.46%
Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds*	Cleveland Guardians	53.19%
Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets	New York Mets	52.24%
Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	52.05%
New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox	New York Yankees	55.16%
Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals*	Chicago Cubs	55.20%
Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	53.06%
Boston Red Sox vs Athletics	Boston Red Sox	66.26%
Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	68.82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants	Milwaukee Brewers	57.11%
Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers*	Los Angeles Dodgers	55.51%

*Missing starting pitcher