Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/25/26 Recap

      Alright day. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15Picks won: 3/6Net Units: -0.56uROI: -9.33% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 41/80Sportsbook favorites won: 41/80Picks won: 17/32Net Units: +1.95uROI: 6.09%

    • 7/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 60.03% -0.0276 -160 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 61.45% 0.0508 -140 Los Angeles Angels vs…

    • 7/24/26 Recap

      Orioles choked away a quality Trevor Rogers start smh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/15Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15Picks won: 4/7Net Units: +0.92uROI: 13.14% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 33/65Sportsbook favorites won: 32/65Picks won: 14/26Net Units: +2.51uROI: 9.65%

    • 7/24/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 68.51% -0.0409 -250 Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals 37.76% 0.2460 +230 Chicago Cubs vs…

    • 7/23/26 Recap

      Royals choked so hard smh. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/5Sportsbook favorites won: 2/5Picks won: 0/2Net Units: -2.00uROI: -100% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 25/50Sportsbook favorites won: 26/50Picks won: 10/19Net Units: +1.59uROI: 8.37%

    • 7/23/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves San Diego Padres 34.01% 0.0203 +200 Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 57.46% -0.0290 -145 Tampa Bay Rays…

    • 7/22/26 Recap

      Amazing day. Finally, something going my way. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 10/17Sportsbook favorites won: 9/17Picks won: 4/4Net Units: +4.49uROI: 112.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 23/45Sportsbook favorites won: 24/45Picks won: 10/17Net Units: +3.59uROI: 21.18%

    • 7/22/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates 47.28% 0.1347 +140 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 45.17% -0.0154 +120 San Francisco Giants…

    • 7/21/26 Recap

      Alright day. Not too happy about the two doubleheaders tomorrow. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/13Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13Picks won: 3/5Net Units: +1.07uROI: 21.40% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 13/28Sportsbook favorites won: 16/28Picks won: 6/13Net Units: -0.90uROI: -6.92%

    • 7/21/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Minnesota Twins 48.47% 0.0907 +125 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 49.03% 0.0296 +110 Pittsburgh Pirates vs…