Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/28/26 Recap

      Horrible week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 9/15Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15Picks won: 4/6Net Units: +2.10uROI: 35.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 44/96Sportsbook favorites won: 51/96Picks won: 19/48Net Units: -9.34uROI: -19.46%

    • 6/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 64.23% -0.0174 -190 Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 50.21% 0.0705 +115 Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue…

    • 6/27/26 Recap

      Just another bad day for this week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 7/15Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15Picks won: 3/8Net Units: -1.27uROI: -15.88% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 35/81Sportsbook favorites won: 43/81Picks won: 15/42Net Units: -11.44uROI: -27.24%

    • 6/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 56.71% -0.0132 -135 New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 53.21% 0.0375 -105 Texas Rangers…

    • 6/26/26 Recap

      It’s been an awful day and an awful week. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 6/15Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15Picks won: 2/8Net Units: -4.34uROI: -54.25% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 28/66Sportsbook favorites won: 36/66Picks won: 12/34Net Units: -10.17uROI: -29.91%

    • 6/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54.15% 0.0127 -115 Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 64.54% -0.0125 -190 Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles…

    • 6/25/26 Recap

      Nats genuinely need to get rid of their bullpen and start over. The past 3 games have had genuinely atrocious closing pitching. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 2/8Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8Picks won: 2/4Net Units: +0.60uROI: 15.00% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 22/51Sportsbook favorites won: 25/51Picks won: 10/26Net Units: -5.83uROI: -22.42%

    • 6/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays Kansas City Royals 62.32% 0.3585 +120 Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 48.99% 0.1022 +125 Athletics vs…

    • 6/24/26 Recap

      Another insane choke from the Nats. Today’s Stats: Model favorites won: 8/16Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16Picks won: 4/8Net Units: -0.29uROI: -3.63% Weekly Stats: Model favorites won: 20/43Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43Picks won: 8/22Net Units: -6.43uROI: -29.23%

    • 6/24/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV): Matchup Predicted Winner Probability EV Odds Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 48.89% 0.0022 +105 Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets* New York Mets 55.13% N/A N/A Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago…