My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 5% (1st)
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 4%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 10.5% (2nd)
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.28% | 0.1347 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 45.17% | -0.0154 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 57.29% | 0.0598 | -115 |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.70% | -0.0079 | -145 |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% | 0.0750 | +115 |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% | -0.0371 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | 46.61% | 0.0487 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.88% | -0.0322 | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 46.82% | -0.0402 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.65% | 0.0368 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | 44.19% | 0.0606 | +140 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.17% | 0.0729 | -110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 57.18% | 0.2465 | +120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 53.30% | -0.0140 | -115 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.81% | -0.0295 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 53.71% | 0.0635 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.63% | -0.0003 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 52.72% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 54.83% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 57.29% |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.70% |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 53.39% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 52.88% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.18% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.65% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 55.81% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.17% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 57.18% |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 53.30% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.81% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 53.71% |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 54.63% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment