My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +230, 5.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -125, 18%
- New York Yankees ML +115, 9.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -140, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 8%
- San Francisco Giants ML -175, 13.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 68.51% | -0.0409 | -250 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 37.76% | 0.2460 | +230 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.09% | 0.0096 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.64% | 0.2896 | -125 |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 56.90% | 0.2233 | +115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.59% | 0.0905 | -120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 49.95% | 0.1239 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.87% | 0.0066 | -140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.92% | 0.1443 | -140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | 49.63% | 0.0174 | +105 |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 59.86% | 0.0416 | -135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 57.07% | 0.0443 | -120 |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 58.50% | -0.0114 | -145 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 50.78% | 0.2187 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 73.39% | 0.1522 | -175 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 68.51% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 62.24% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.09% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.64% |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 56.90% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.59% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.05% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.87% |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.92% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.37% |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 59.86% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 57.07% |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 58.50% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 50.78% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 73.39% |
Bayesball Picks 
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