Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• San Francisco Giants ML -135, 12.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML -110, 6%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 7%
• Pittsburgh Pirates ML -120, 9%
• Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 9.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML -105, 7.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	60.03%	-0.0276	-160
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	61.45%	0.0508	-140
Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	68.09%	0.1847	-135
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	58.12%	0.1101	-110
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	61.54%	0.0524	-140
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies*	New York Yankees	58.38%	0.0509	-125
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	61.06%	0.1173	-120
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.59%	0.1454	-120
Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	62.26%	0.1643	-115
Athletics vs Minnesota Twins*	Minnesota Twins	62.97%	0.0202	-160
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	Houston Astros	48.96%	0.0036	+105
Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Colorado Rockies	34.50%	0.0006	+190
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	New York Mets	48.18%	0.1082	+130
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	58.45%	0.1398	-105
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	51.89%	-0.0296	-115

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	60.03%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	61.45%
Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	68.09%
Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	58.12%
San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	61.54%
New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies*	New York Yankees	58.38%
Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	61.06%
Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	62.59%
Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	62.26%
Athletics vs Minnesota Twins*	Minnesota Twins	62.97%
Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	51.04%
Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	65.50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets	Los Angeles Dodgers	51.82%
Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals	Cincinnati Reds	58.45%
Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers	Seattle Mariners	51.89%

*Missing starting pitcher