Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    7/23/26 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    San Diego Padres vs Atlanta BravesSan Diego Padres34.01%0.0203+200
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.46%-0.0290-145
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays64.50%0.2320-110
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals56.31%-0.0033-130
    Kansas City Royals vs Detroit TigersKansas City Royals44.07%0.1899+170

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    San Diego Padres vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves65.99%
    Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians57.46%
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue JaysTampa Bay Rays64.50%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals56.31%
    Kansas City Royals vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.93%
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