My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -115, 9.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 8.5%
- New York Mets ML +125, 7.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML +100, 14.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +105, 16.5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML -105, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 48.47% | 0.0907 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 49.03% | 0.0296 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.00% | 0.1000 | +120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.46% | 0.1680 | -115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 55.28% | 0.2050 | +120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.42% | -0.0077 | -150 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 53.01% | 0.0126 | -110 |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | 52.82% | 0.1884 | +125 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 64.65% | 0.2801 | +100 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Chicago White Sox | 52.55% | 0.1035 | +100 |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | 65.91% | 0.3512 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 56.19% | 0.0957 | -105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.54% | 0.1416 | -105 |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61.60% | 0.0533 | -140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | 52.70% | 0.0277 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.53% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.97% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 50.00% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.46% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 55.28% |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.42% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 53.01% |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | 52.82% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 64.65% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Chicago White Sox | 52.55% |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | 65.91% |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 56.19% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 58.54% |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 61.60% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | 52.70% |
Bayesball Picks 
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