My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Miami Marlins ML +145, 4.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +145, 7.5%
- New York Mets ML +135, 8.5% (2nd)
- Kansas City Royals ML +145, 11.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML -120, 8.5%
- Houston Astros ML -135, 9%
- Seattle Mariners ML +135, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 46.12% | 0.1299 | +145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.96% | -0.0089 | -135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% | 0.0021 | +100 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% | 0.2250 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.69% | 0.0596 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 47.25% | -0.0314 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 47.12% | 0.0601 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% | 0.0462 | -150 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.38% | 0.2277 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 51.28% | 0.0475 | +115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.39% | 0.3324 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 57.68% | -0.0253 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 62.36% | 0.1411 | -120 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 65.22% | 0.1349 | -135 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.20% | 0.0922 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 50.70% | 0.1914 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.88% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.96% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.75% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 52.88% |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.38% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 51.28% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.39% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 57.68% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 62.36% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 65.22% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.20% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 50.70% |
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