My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 12.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -110, 14%
- Kansas City Royals ML +155, 7.5%
- New York Mets ML +125, 6%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +115, 9%
- New York Yankees ML +155, 10.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.37% | 0.0506 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.28% | 0.2208 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.54% | 0.0539 | -130 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.16% | -0.0339 | -145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.87% | 0.2582 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 48.15% | 0.2279 | +155 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.18% | 0.1515 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.47% | 0.0345 | -125 |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 57.94% | -0.0116 | +135 |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.45% | 0.0743 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 75.38% | -0.0276 | -345 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 56.15% | 0.2073 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 49.23% | -0.0399 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 52.17% | 0.3251 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.37% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.54% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.16% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.87% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.85% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.18% |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.47% |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 57.94% |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 75.38% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 56.15% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | 50.77% |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 52.17% |
Bayesball Picks 
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