My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 9.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +145, 6.5%
- Washington Nationals ML -135, 20%
- New York Mets ML -105, 8.5%
- New York Yankees ML -145, 12%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +100, 18.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +115, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 56.16% | -0.0396 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.69% | 0.1819 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.54% | -0.0004 | -125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 48.27% | 0.1825 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 74.44% | 0.2952 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 42.29% | 0.0361 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 59.46% | 0.1594 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 68.96% | 0.1655 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 51.79% | ||
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 68.73% | 0.3608 | +100 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 62.19% | -0.0237 | -175 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.08% | 0.0983 | +115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 56.16% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.69% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.54% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.73% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 74.44% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.71% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 59.46% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 68.96% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 51.79% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 68.73% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 62.19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.08% |
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