My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +120, 8%
- Chicago Cubs ML +100, 10.5%
- New York Mets ML -130, 7.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +110, 4.5%
- Seattle Mariners ML +125, 6%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.09% | 0.0869 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.26% | 0.1937 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 60.46% | 0.2092 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.11% | 0.0679 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.92% | 0.1136 | -130 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 47.90% | 0.0778 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 67.23% | 0.0690 | -170 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 52.47% | 0.1019 | +110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 51.16% | 0.1510 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.09% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.26% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 60.46% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.11% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.92% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 52.10% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 67.23% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 52.47% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 51.16% |
Bayesball Picks 
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