My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- New York Yankees ML +135, 8%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 6%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +145, 8%
- Cleveland Guardians ML -140, 7%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -155, 9%
- Washington Nationals ML +105, 15%
- Kansas City Royals ML -110, 9%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 51.79% | 0.2171 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.33% | 0.0498 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 58.84% | 0.1003 | -115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.56% | 0.2388 | +145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 63.76% | 0.0903 | -140 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.49% | 0.0970 | -155 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.45% | 0.0170 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 64.31% | 0.3184 | +105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.61% | -0.0490 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 60.85% | 0.1623 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.57% | 0.0585 | -170 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 64.29% | 0.0415 | -160 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.19% | 0.0262 | -155 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 48.47% | -0.0064 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 58.10% | 0.0683 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 51.79% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 58.84% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.56% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 63.76% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.49% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.45% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 64.31% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.61% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 60.85% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.57% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 64.29% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.19% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.53% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.10% |
Bayesball Picks 
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