My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 10%
- Washington Nationals ML +105, 10%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 10.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -120, 20%
- Houston Astros ML -145, 8%
- Kansas City Royals ML +105, 14%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +185, 11%
- Boston Red Sox ML +155, 11.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.54% | 0.2496 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 58.98% | 0.2091 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 58.57% | 0.2301 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Arizona Diamondbacks | 43.34% | 0.0618 | +145 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.46% | 0.0346 | +120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.67% | 0.0299 | -150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 72.79% | 0.3321 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 65.66% | 0.1097 | -145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 55.64% | 0.0293 | -115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 63.36% | 0.2989 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 49.12% | 0.3999 | +185 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 57.45% | 0.0742 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 47.61% | 0.0713 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 44.76% | -0.0377 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 53.40% | 0.3618 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.54% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 58.98% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 58.57% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 56.66% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 52.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.67% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 72.79% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 65.66% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 55.64% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 63.36% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.88% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 57.45% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 52.39% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.24% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 53.40% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment