My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Baltimore Orioles ML -150, 13%
- Washington Nationals ML +230, 15.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 17%
- Chicago Cubs ML +180, 8.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +170, 8%
- Detroit Tigers ML +110, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 70.34% | 0.1747 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 46.86% | 0.0543 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% | 0.0153 | -140 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 52.12% | 0.7199 | +230 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.08% | 0.1151 | +165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% | 0.0500 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 43.32% | -0.0253 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.18% | 0.4216 | +125 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 39.84% | -0.0433 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 46.94% | 0.3144 | +180 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 46.92% | 0.2667 | +170 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.17% | 0.0115 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.55% | -0.0412 | -165 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 48.13% | -0.0133 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.96% | 0.1541 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 70.34% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.14% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 52.12% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.92% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 56.68% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.18% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.14% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.06% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.08% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 51.83% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.55% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.96% |
Bayesball Picks 
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