My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Washington Nationals ML +125, 22%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 5%
- Chicago Cubs ML +105, 5.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +105, 13.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -185, 7.5%
- San Diego Padres ML +100, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 69.02% | 0.5529 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 67.48% | -0.0216 | -220 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.37% | 0.1146 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 62.38% | 0.2788 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.51% | 0.0187 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 70.06% | 0.0789 | -185 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 57.72% | 0.1429 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 69.02% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 67.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.37% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 62.38% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 51.49% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 70.06% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 57.72% |
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