My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -170, 7%
- New York Mets ML -135, 4%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 6.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +155, 11%
- New York Yankees ML -115, 7.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +100, 16.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +115, 9%
- Detroit Tigers ML -135, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 45.92% | 0.0010 | +120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 41.75% | -0.0189 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.01% | 0.0814 | -170 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.07% | 0.0627 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 48.12% | -0.0376 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 52.42% | 0.1533 | +120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.51% | 0.0172 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.68% | 0.0414 | -165 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.81% | 0.3414 | +155 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 60.96% | 0.1278 | -115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 66.83% | 0.3232 | +100 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 56.39% | 0.2124 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.88% | -0.0319 | -170 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.85% | 0.0370 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 63.31% | 0.1017 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.08% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.25% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.01% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.07% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 52.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.51% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.68% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.81% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 60.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 66.83% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 56.39% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.88% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.85% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 63.31% |
Bayesball Picks 
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