My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- New York Mets ML +115, 6%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML +185, 6.5%
- Washington Nationals ML -115, 30.5%
- Athletics ML +225, 6.5%
- Miami Marlins ML -155, 30%
- Kansas City Royals ML +145, 9.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 6%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +145, 9%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 52.90% | 0.1375 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays | 43.37% | 0.2359 | +185 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 81.97% | 0.5164 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.59% | -0.0098 | -145 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 39.94% | 0.2982 | +225 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 84.28% | 0.3906 | -155 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 64.14% | 0.0712 | -150 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.85% | 0.0449 | -185 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.91% | 0.2718 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | 40.10% | -0.0176 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.98% | 0.1470 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.46% | 0.2607 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.81% | 0.0437 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.13% | 0.2499 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 46.35% | -0.0035 | +115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 52.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.63% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 81.97% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.59% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 60.06% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 84.28% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 64.14% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.85% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.91% |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.90% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.98% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.46% |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.81% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.13% |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% |
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