My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cincinnati Reds ML -165, 9%
- New York Mets ML -105, 4.5%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115, 5%
- Chicago Cubs ML +105, 5.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML +105, 6%
- Washington Nationals ML +280, 11.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML -125, 7%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.46% | -0.0031 | -200 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 68.85% | 0.1084 | -165 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 53.48% | 0.0430 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.00% | 0.1179 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.45% | 0.1163 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.85% | 0.1244 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 43.20% | 0.6414 | +280 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.37% | 0.1017 | +155 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 44.60% | 0.0035 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.80% | 0.1124 | -125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% | -0.0266 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.46% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 68.85% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 53.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.00% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.45% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.85% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.80% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 56.63% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.80% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% |
Bayesball Picks 
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