My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago Cubs ML -120, 8%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -160, 6.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +145, 16%
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 6.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML -120, 9%
- San Diego Padres ML -110, 7%
- Detroit Tigers ML +125, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.00% | 0.0472 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 61.69% | 0.1289 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 44.39 | 0.1099 | +150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.70% | 0.0806 | -160 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.55% | -0.0330 | -140 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 57.42% | 0.0738 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.01% | -0.0423 | -140 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 59.91% | 0.4678 | +145 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.26% | -0.0222 | -155 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 54.36% | 0.1415 | +110 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.72% | 0.1478 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.22% | 0.0583 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 61.61% | 0.1768 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 51.96% | 0.1692 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 61.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 55.61% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.70% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.55% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 57.42% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.01% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 59.91% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.26% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 54.36% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.72% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.78% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 61.61% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 51.96% |
Bayesball Picks 
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