My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- New York Yankees ML +125, 5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +135, 11.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +125, 5%
- Houston Astros ML +100, 8.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +125, 13.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +100, 11.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 35.63% | 0.1402 | +220 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels | 55.51% | 0.3044 | +135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays | 45.86% | 0.1007 | +140 |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.84% | 0.0769 | -130 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 49.84% | 0.1215 | +125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago Cubs | 61.34% | -0.0248 | -170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.41% | -0.0128 | -145 |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 58.28% | 0.1656 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 54.79% | 0.0026 | -120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | 45.05% | 0.0588 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% | 0.3315 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 46.75% | -0.0183 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41.20% | 0.0919 | +165 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.74% | 0.2225 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 64.37% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels | 55.51% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.14% |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.84% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Cincinnati Reds | 50.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago Cubs | 61.34% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.41% |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 58.28% |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 54.79% |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.95% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.25% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.80% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.74% |
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