I don’t think I’ll forget about yesterday anytime soon, but today almost felt like compensation for it.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/14
Picks won: 5/6
Net Units: +5.95u
ROI: 99.17%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 45/75
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/75
Picks won: 15/30
Net Units: +2.95u
ROI: 9.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 47.46% | -0.0271 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.57% | 0.4197 | +165 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.98% | -0.0260 | -135 |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.54% | 0.0708 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 56.84% | 0.1651 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.53% | 0.0008 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.11% | -0.0411 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.32% | 0.3271 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.42% | 0.4387 | +155 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.21% | 0.0835 | -210 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 44.27% | 0.0845 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 40.60% | 0.1976 | +195 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.46% | -0.0254 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 52.58% | 0.1042 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.54% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.57% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.98% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.54% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 56.84% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.53% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.11% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.32% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.42% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.21% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.73% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.40% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.46% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 52.58% |
Crushing day. Ofc when I finally get a good day this happens. Angels and Os somehow completely threw two of the most winnable games ever. 2 walkoffs to make this an 0/4 day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/14
Picks won: 0/4
Net Units: -4.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/61
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/61
Picks won: 10/24
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -12.50%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 36.35% | -0.0366 | +165 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 37.99% | 0.2346 | +225 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.80% | 0.0045 | -125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.00% | -0.0195 | -115 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 42.39% | 0.0173 | +140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.40% | -0.0053 | -160 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.83% | 0.2469 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 49.13% | -0.0174 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.53% | 0.0905 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 50.72% | 0.2172 | +140 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 42.28% | 0.0358 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 45.64% | 0.2323 | +170 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.79% | 0.0084 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.00% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 63.65% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 62.01% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.80% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.00% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.61% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.40% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.83% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.87% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.53% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 50.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 57.72% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.36% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.79% |
Amazing day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/8
Picks won: 3/3
Net Units: +3.35u
ROI: 111.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 30/47
Sportsbook favorites won: 30/47
Picks won: 10/20
Net Units: +1.00u
ROI: 5.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.42% | 0.1360 | +105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.07% | 0.2166 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.40% | 0.0537 | +105 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.09% | 0.0329 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 59.42% | 0.2182 | +105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 46.70% | 0.0975 | +135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% | 0.0900 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.42% | -0.0224 | -120 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics* | Athletics | 62.19% | 0.0635 | -140 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Toronto Blue Jays | 55.42% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.07% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 51.40% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.09% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 59.42% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 53.30% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 50.00% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.42% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics* | Athletics | 62.19% |
*Missing Angels starting pitcher
Crazy Rays choke ngl
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: +0.65u
ROI: +8.13%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/39
Sportsbook favorites won: 26/39
Picks won: 7/17
Net Units: -2.35u
ROI: -13.82%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 56.39% | -0.0188 | -135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Kansas City Royals | 53.94% | 0.1328 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 59.59% | 0.1620 | -105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 52.02% | N/A | N/A |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 58.86% | 0.1241 | -110 |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals* | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.09% | 0.1180 | -120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.31% | 0.1173 | +150 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 45.80% | 0.0992 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 59.86% | 0.0774 | -125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 43.08% | 0.0985 | +155 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves* | San Francisco Giants | 51.25% | 0.1173 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 62.56% | 0.2824 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Colorado Rockies | 59.37% | 0.5140 | +155 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.70% | 0.0009 | -120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | 51.30% | 0.1543 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | New York Mets | 56.39% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Kansas City Royals | 53.94% |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 59.59% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 52.02% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 58.86% |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals* | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.09% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.31% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.20% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 59.86% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.92% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves* | San Francisco Giants | 51.25% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 62.56% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Colorado Rockies | 59.37% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.70% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | 51.30% |
*Missing Padres and Giants starting pitchers
A lot of close games today that went poorly. Giants moved to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/14
Picks won: 2/6
Net Units: -2.05u
ROI: -34.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 14/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 19/24
Picks won: 3/9
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -33.33%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.19% | 0.4257 | +145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Kansas City Royals | 52.65% | -0.0057 | +110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox* | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.05% | 0.0440 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | Chicago White Sox | 48.17% | 0.0839 | +125 |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% | 0.1634 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 51.94% | 0.2205 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 55.52% | 0.2493 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.39% | 0.0062 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Colorado Rockies | 49.52% | 0.0473 | +165 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.27% | 0.0355 | -145 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Detroit Tigers | 46.81% | 0.1001 | +135 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 58.07% | 0.1091 | -110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.30% | 0.0399 | +120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Baltimore Orioles | 45.78% | 0.0300 | +125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.04% | 0.2384 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies | Miami Marlins | 58.19% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 52.65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox* | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.05% |
| Chicago White Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 51.83% |
| New York Mets vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.75% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Atlanta Braves | San Francisco Giants | 51.94% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cleveland Guardians | 55.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.39% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 60.48% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.27% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.19% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Angels | 58.07% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Athletics | Athletics | 52.30% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 54.22% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.04% |
*Missing Blue Jays pitcher
Bayesball Picks 