My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 51.01% | 0.0201 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 51.01% |
And Dodgers get the sweep. My model had Jays, but I wanted Mariners, so I’m glad my model missed that.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 0/0
Net Units: +0.00u
ROI: 0.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27
Picks won: 11/17
Net Units: +4.78u
ROI: 28.12%
Mariners might be a little screwed.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 0/1
Net Units: -1.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/27
Picks won: 11/18
Net Units: +3.78u
ROI: 21.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.03% | -0.0479 | -120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Milwaukee Brewers | 38.75% | 0.0463 | +170 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.03% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.25% |
Well, Mariners did not end up sweeping. Blue Jays laid belt to ass. My model had that though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +1.00u
ROI: 100.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 17/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25
Picks won: 11/17
Net Units: +4.78u
ROI: 28.12%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.01% | 0.3003 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Toronto Blue Jays | 65.01% |
I think both Dodgers and Mariners might end up sweeping.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/1
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +0.83u
ROI: 83.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/24
Picks won: 10/16
Net Units: +3.78u
ROI: 23.63%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.60% | 0.0540 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.60% |
My model’s been really good after that set of wild card matches. Maybe it’s luck though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/2
Sportsbook favorites won: 1/2
Picks won: 1/1
Net Units: +1.15u
ROI: 115.00%
Post-Season Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/23
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/23
Picks won: 9/15
Net Units: +2.95u
ROI: 19.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 54.69% | 0.1759 | +115 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.39% | 0.0269 | -160 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Team | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue Jays | Seattle Mariners | 54.69% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.39% |
Bayesball Picks 