Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 6.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 10.5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 7.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +100, 8.5%
• Detroit Tigers ML -105, 5.5%
• Miami Marlins ML +110, 5.5%
• Washington Nationals ML -120, 18.5%
• Cincinnati Reds ML +125, 6.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	58.08%	0.0628	-120
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	Pittsburgh Pirates	56.39%	0.1279	+100
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays	56.03%	0.2606	+125
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	53.72%	0.1819	+120
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Los Angeles Dodgers	49.19%	0.0576	+115
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	59.94%	0.0129	-145
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	San Francisco Giants	58.68%	0.1618	+100
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	New York Mets	39.00%	0.0531	+170
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	Detroit Tigers	56.68%	0.1053	-105
Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	Chicago White Sox	43.73%	0.0715	+145
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	Miami Marlins	53.47%	0.1229	+110
Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	Washington Nationals	71.33%	0.3054	-120
Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Athletics	45.35%	0.0885	+140
Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	Cincinnati Reds	51.64%	0.1619	+125
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	St. Louis Cardinals	53.78%	0.0756	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians	Minnesota Twins	58.08%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees	Pittsburgh Pirates	56.39%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays	Tampa Bay Rays	56.03%
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox	Baltimore Orioles	53.72%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies	Philadelphia Phillies	50.81%
San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	59.94%
San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals	San Francisco Giants	58.68%
New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	61.00%
Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs	Detroit Tigers	56.68%
Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	56.27%
Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros	Miami Marlins	53.47%
Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies	Washington Nationals	71.33%
Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	54.65%
Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners	Cincinnati Reds	51.64%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels	St. Louis Cardinals	53.78%

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 3.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 14.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML -130, 16%
• Miami Marlins ML +110, 6.5%
• Minnesota Twins ML +140, 8.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +145, 9.5%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML -130, 8%
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -130, 12.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	52.18%	0.0176	-105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.19%	0.0580	-115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	63.83%	0.3086	+105
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	60.99%	0.0612	-135
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	52.52%	0.0505	+100
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	49.60%	0.0169	+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	55.94%	0.0349	-115
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	70.51%	0.2481	-130
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	54.46%	0.1436	+110
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	51.86%	0.2446	+140
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	43.68%	-0.0477	+120
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	58.07%	-0.0186	-145
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	62.62%	0.0145	-160
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	52.13%	0.2771	+145
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.50%	0.1230	-130
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees*	New York Yankees	50.00%	N/A	N/A

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	52.18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.19%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	63.83%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	60.99%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	52.52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	50.40%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	55.94%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	70.51%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	54.46%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	51.86%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	56.32%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	58.07%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	62.62%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	52.13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees*	New York Yankees	50.00%

*Missing starting pitcher

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 9.5%
• New York Mets ML +140, 7%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +100, 11%
• Boston Red Sox ML -115, 17%
• Texas Rangers ML -105, 7.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +115, 9.5%
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 12%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +155, 4%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.74%	0.2041	+105
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	48.69%	0.0956	+125
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	54.72%	0.0835	+100
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	53.81%	0.0063	-115
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	50.12%	0.2028	+140
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Baltimore Orioles	52.97%	0.0116	-110
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	55.30%	0.0784	-105
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	61.20%	0.2240	+100
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.07%	0.2917	-115
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	58.36%	0.1381	-105
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	49.15%	0.0322	+110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians*	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.46%	N/A	N/A
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	56.64%	0.2177	+115
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	64.80%	0.2117	-115
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	53.02%	0.0870	+105
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	44.45%	0.1291	+155

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.74%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	51.31%
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	54.72%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	53.81%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	50.12%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Baltimore Orioles	52.97%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	55.30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	61.20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.07%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	58.36%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	50.85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians*	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.46%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	56.64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	64.80%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	53.02%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	55.55%

*Missing starting pitcher

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 6.5%
• Texas Rangers ML +170, 6%
• Toronto Blue Jays ML -135, 6.5%
• Miami Marlins ML +125, 7%
• Minnesota Twins ML +120, 4.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML -115, 9.5%
• Washington Nationals ML -110, 8%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Tampa Bay Rays	46.69%	-0.0428	+105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	59.66%	0.1157	-115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.28%	N/A	N/A
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.88%	0.2365	+110
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	44.82%	0.2102	+170
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	63.01%	0.0964	-135
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	52.00%	0.1701	+125
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	50.48%	0.1004	+120
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.47%	-0.0361	-110
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	San Diego Padres	55.10%	0.0304	-115
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	62.51%	0.1689	-115
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	50.22%	-0.0208	-105
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	59.98%	0.1456	-110
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	54.86%	0.0697	-105
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.54%	0.0449	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	59.66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.88%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	55.18%
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	63.01%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	52.00%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	50.48%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.47%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	San Diego Padres	55.10%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	62.51%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	50.22%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	59.98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	54.86%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.54%

*Doubleheader/missing pitchers

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• New York Mets ML +110, 17%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	65.46%	0.3746	+110

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	65.46%