Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 3.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML +105, 14.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML -130, 16%
• Miami Marlins ML +110, 6.5%
• Minnesota Twins ML +140, 8.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +145, 9.5%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML -130, 8%
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -130, 12.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	52.18%	0.0176	-105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.19%	0.0580	-115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	63.83%	0.3086	+105
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	60.99%	0.0612	-135
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	52.52%	0.0505	+100
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Cleveland Guardians	49.60%	0.0169	+105
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	55.94%	0.0349	-115
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	70.51%	0.2481	-130
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	54.46%	0.1436	+110
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	51.86%	0.2446	+140
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	43.68%	-0.0477	+120
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	58.07%	-0.0186	-145
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	62.62%	0.0145	-160
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	52.13%	0.2771	+145
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.50%	0.1230	-130
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees*	New York Yankees	50.00%	N/A	N/A

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	52.18%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.19%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Tampa Bay Rays	63.83%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	60.99%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	52.52%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	50.40%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	55.94%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	70.51%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	54.46%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	51.86%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	56.32%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	58.07%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	62.62%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	52.13%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	Arizona Diamondbacks	63.50%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees*	New York Yankees	50.00%

*Missing starting pitcher