Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 6.5%
• Texas Rangers ML +170, 6%
• Toronto Blue Jays ML -135, 6.5%
• Miami Marlins ML +125, 7%
• Minnesota Twins ML +120, 4.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML -115, 9.5%
• Washington Nationals ML -110, 8%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Tampa Bay Rays	46.69%	-0.0428	+105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	59.66%	0.1157	-115
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.28%	N/A	N/A
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.88%	0.2365	+110
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	44.82%	0.2102	+170
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	63.01%	0.0964	-135
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	52.00%	0.1701	+125
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	50.48%	0.1004	+120
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.47%	-0.0361	-110
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	San Diego Padres	55.10%	0.0304	-115
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	62.51%	0.1689	-115
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	50.22%	-0.0208	-105
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	59.98%	0.1456	-110
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	54.86%	0.0697	-105
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.54%	0.0449	+135

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.31%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	59.66%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox*	Boston Red Sox	53.28%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.88%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	55.18%
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	63.01%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	52.00%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	50.48%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Houston Astros	50.47%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	San Diego Padres	55.10%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Colorado Rockies	62.51%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	50.22%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	59.98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	54.86%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	Seattle Mariners	55.54%

*Doubleheader/missing pitchers