Alright day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: -0.56u
ROI: -9.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 41/80
Sportsbook favorites won: 41/80
Picks won: 17/32
Net Units: +1.95u
ROI: 6.09%
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My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- San Francisco Giants ML -135, 12.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML -110, 6%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 7%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -120, 9%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -115, 9.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -105, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 60.03% -0.0276 -160 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 61.45% 0.0508 -140 Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 68.09% 0.1847 -135 Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58.12% 0.1101 -110 San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 61.54% 0.0524 -140 New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies* New York Yankees 58.38% 0.0509 -125 Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 61.06% 0.1173 -120 Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 62.59% 0.1454 -120 Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 62.26% 0.1643 -115 Athletics vs Minnesota Twins* Minnesota Twins 62.97% 0.0202 -160 Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Houston Astros 48.96% 0.0036 +105 Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Colorado Rockies 34.50% 0.0006 +190 Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets New York Mets 48.18% 0.1082 +130 Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 58.45% 0.1398 -105 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners 51.89% -0.0296 -115 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 60.03% Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 61.45% Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 68.09% Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 58.12% San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 61.54% New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies* New York Yankees 58.38% Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 61.06% Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 62.59% Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 62.26% Athletics vs Minnesota Twins* Minnesota Twins 62.97% Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 51.04% Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 65.50% Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Los Angeles Dodgers 51.82% Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 58.45% Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners 51.89% *Missing starting pitcher
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Orioles choked away a quality Trevor Rogers start smh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.92u
ROI: 13.14%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 33/65
Sportsbook favorites won: 32/65
Picks won: 14/26
Net Units: +2.51u
ROI: 9.65% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Kansas City Royals ML +230, 5.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML -125, 18%
- New York Yankees ML +115, 9.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML -130, 10%
- Miami Marlins ML -140, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 8%
- San Francisco Giants ML -175, 13.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 68.51% -0.0409 -250 Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals 37.76% 0.2460 +230 Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 56.09% 0.0096 -125 Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Arizona Diamondbacks 71.64% 0.2896 -125 New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies New York Yankees 56.90% 0.2233 +115 Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 65.31% 0.1560 -130 Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets New York Mets 49.95% 0.1239 +125 Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 58.87% 0.0066 -140 San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 66.92% 0.1443 -140 Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Toronto Blue Jays 49.63% 0.0174 +105 Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 59.86% 0.0416 -135 Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners 57.07% 0.0443 -120 Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 58.50% -0.0114 -145 Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 50.78% 0.2187 +140 Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 73.39% 0.1522 -175 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 68.51% Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 62.24% Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 56.09% Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals Arizona Diamondbacks 71.64% New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies New York Yankees 56.90% Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles 65.31% Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets Los Angeles Dodgers 50.05% Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 58.87% San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins Miami Marlins 66.92% Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 50.37% Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 59.86% Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers Seattle Mariners 57.07% Athletics vs Minnesota Twins Minnesota Twins 58.50% Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals Cincinnati Reds 50.78% Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 73.39% -
Royals choked so hard smh.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/5
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/5
Picks won: 0/2
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -100%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 25/50
Sportsbook favorites won: 26/50
Picks won: 10/19
Net Units: +1.59u
ROI: 8.37% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 12.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +170, 5.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves San Diego Padres 34.01% 0.0203 +200 Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 57.46% -0.0290 -145 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 64.50% 0.2320 -110 Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 56.31% -0.0033 -130 Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Kansas City Royals 44.07% 0.1899 +170 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 65.99% Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 57.46% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 64.50% Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 56.31% Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 55.93% -
Amazing day. Finally, something going my way.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/17
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/17
Picks won: 4/4
Net Units: +4.49u
ROI: 112.25%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/45
Sportsbook favorites won: 24/45
Picks won: 10/17
Net Units: +3.59u
ROI: 21.18% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +140, 5% (1st)
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -110, 4%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 10.5% (2nd)
- Detroit Tigers ML +105, 5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates 47.28% 0.1347 +140 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 45.17% -0.0154 +120 San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals San Francisco Giants 57.29% 0.0598 -115 New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 58.70% -0.0079 -145 Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 50.00% 0.0750 +115 Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52.05% -0.0371 -115 Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Cincinnati Reds 46.61% 0.0487 +125 St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 52.88% -0.0322 -120 Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Minnesota Twins 46.82% -0.0402 +105 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 56.65% 0.0368 -120 Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates 44.19% 0.0606 +140 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 56.17% 0.0729 -110 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 57.18% 0.2465 +120 San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53.30% -0.0140 -115 Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 50.81% -0.0295 -110 Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers 53.71% 0.1011 +105 Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Houston Astros 54.63% -0.0003 -120 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 52.72% Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 54.83% San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals San Francisco Giants 57.29% New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 58.70% Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 50.00% Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 52.05% Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners 53.39% St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 52.88% Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 53.18% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 56.65% Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 55.81% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 56.17% Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 57.18% San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 53.30% Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 50.81% Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers 53.71% Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Houston Astros 54.63% -
Alright day. Not too happy about the two doubleheaders tomorrow.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/13
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +1.07u
ROI: 21.40%Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 13/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/28
Picks won: 6/13
Net Units: -0.90u
ROI: -6.92% -
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy- Tampa Bay Rays ML -115, 9.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 8.5%
- New York Mets ML +125, 7.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML +100, 14.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +105, 16.5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML -105, 7.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Matchup Higher EV Team Probability EV Odds Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Minnesota Twins 48.47% 0.0907 +125 Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Los Angeles Dodgers 49.03% 0.0296 +110 Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates 50.00% 0.1000 +120 Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 62.46% 0.1680 -115 Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 55.28% 0.2050 +120 San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59.42% -0.0077 -150 San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals San Francisco Giants 53.01% 0.0126 -110 New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets 52.82% 0.1884 +125 Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers 64.65% 0.2801 +100 Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Chicago White Sox 52.55% 0.1035 +100 Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Miami Marlins 65.91% 0.3512 +105 Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 56.19% 0.0957 -105 St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 58.54% 0.1416 -105 Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 61.60% 0.0533 -140 Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Cincinnati Reds 52.70% 0.0277 -105 My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
Matchup Predicted Winner Probability Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 51.53% Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 50.97% Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees New York Yankees 50.00% Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays Tampa Bay Rays 62.46% Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox Baltimore Orioles 55.28% San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves 59.42% San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals San Francisco Giants 53.01% New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets 52.82% Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs Detroit Tigers 64.65% Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers Chicago White Sox 52.55% Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros Miami Marlins 65.91% Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 56.19% St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 58.54% Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks Arizona Diamondbacks 61.60% Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners Cincinnati Reds 52.70%
Bayesball Picks 