Nats genuinely need to get rid of their bullpen and start over. The past 3 games have had genuinely atrocious closing pitching.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 2/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +0.60u
ROI: 15.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 22/51
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/51
Picks won: 10/26
Net Units: -5.83u
ROI: -22.42%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 62.32% | 0.3585 | +120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 48.99% | 0.1022 | +125 |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 62.54% | 0.0882 | -135 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 58.02% | 0.0850 | -115 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 45.58% | 0.1394 | +150 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 46.08% | 0.0368 | +125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 49.28% | -0.0391 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 49.66% | 0.1670 | +135 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 60.77% | 0.0575 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 62.32% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Seattle Mariners | 51.01% |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 62.54% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 58.02% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.92% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 50.72% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | New York Yankees | 50.34% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 60.77% |
Another insane choke from the Nats.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.29u
ROI: -3.63%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 20/43
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43
Picks won: 8/22
Net Units: -6.43u
ROI: -29.23%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 48.89% | 0.0022 | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets* | New York Mets | 55.13% | N/A | N/A |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 60.47% | 0.1187 | -115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 66.27% | 0.0405 | -175 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 66.33% | 0.1740 | -130 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Seattle Mariners | 63.95% | 0.2662 | +100 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 57.96% | 0.3041 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | New York Yankees | 43.99% | -0.0322 | +120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 59.78% | 0.2553 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 50.97% | 0.2232 | +140 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets* | Chicago Cubs | 66.97% | N/A | N/A |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 72.73% | 0.2291 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 46.54% | 0.1402 | +145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49.34% | -0.0230 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 46.18% | -0.0072 | +115 |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 52.75% | 0.0814 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Texas Rangers | 51.11% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets* | New York Mets | 55.13% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 60.47% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 66.27% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 66.33% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Seattle Mariners | 63.95% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 57.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.01% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 59.78% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 50.97% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets* | Chicago Cubs | 66.97% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 72.73% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.46% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.66% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | 53.82% |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 52.75% |
*Missing Cubs starting pitchers
Just terrible luck today tbh. Nationals choking that hurt. Tons of rallies but no clutches for me though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/9
Net Units: -4.84u
ROI: -53.78%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 12/27
Sportsbook favorites won: 14/27
Picks won: 4/14
Net Units: -6.14u
ROI: -43.86%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 48.09% | 0.0339 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.20% | 0.0087 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 60.42% | 0.5347 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Texas Rangers | 44.37% | -0.0016 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.75% | 0.3217 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 47.17% | 0.1084 | +135 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 64.50% | N/A | N/A |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.18% | 0.1717 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 67.95% | 0.6648 | +145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 60.10% | 0.1238 | -115 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.93% | 0.2211 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 69.02% | 0.1182 | -160 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 58.28% | -0.0384 | -155 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres* | San Diego Padres | 60.72% | 0.1597 | -110 |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | Athletics | 62.50% | 0.2812 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.91% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Seattle Mariners | 50.80% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 60.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 55.63% |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.75% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.83% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 64.50% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.18% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 67.95% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 60.10% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.93% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 69.02% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 58.28% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres* | San Diego Padres | 60.72% |
| Athletics vs San Francisco Giants | Athletics | 62.50% |
*Missing Padres starting pitcher
Pretty bad day + Cubs game pushed to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/12
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.30u
ROI: -26.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/12
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/12
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.30u
ROI: -26.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 60.76% | 0.2456 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Kansas City Royals | 41.47% | 0.0575 | +155 |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.22% | 0.1523 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.46% | 0.0343 | -125 |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 56.93% | 0.1955 | +110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 63.21% | 0.1377 | -125 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 81.17% | 0.3394 | -155 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.67% | 0.1653 | +130 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.65% | 0.0247 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.15% | 0.0212 | -150 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 48.82% | 0.0252 | +110 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 62.01% | 0.0046 | -160 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | 56.76% | 0.0842 | -110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 60.76% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.53% |
| Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 66.22% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.46% |
| Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays | Houston Astros | 56.93% |
| Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets | Chicago Cubs | 63.21% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds | Milwaukee Brewers | 81.17% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.67% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.65% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 61.15% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies | Boston Red Sox | 51.18% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels | Baltimore Orioles | 62.01% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres | Atlanta Braves | 56.76% |
Solid day to end the week. Pity Orioles choked that first game of the series. They could’ve swept the Dodgers.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/14
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.00u
ROI: 28.57%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 54/89
Sportsbook favorites won: 53/89
Picks won: 19/37
Net Units: +4.95u
ROI: 13.38%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.92% | 0.0676 | +100 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.11% | 0.0516 | +100 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 53.10% | 0.1152 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.30% | 0.0119 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.59% | 0.1130 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.15% | -0.0398 | -140 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 55.46% | 0.1369 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.61% | N/A | N/A |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | San Diego Padres | 40.98% | -0.0164 | +140 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.72% | 0.1637 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 54.43% | 0.1431 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.36% | -0.0194 | -135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 48.63% | 0.4102 | +190 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.65% | 0.2177 | -125 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.03% | 0.0562 | -190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.92% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.11% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 53.10% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 55.30% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 50.59% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.15% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 55.46% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Toronto Blue Jays | 56.61% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 59.02% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 51.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 54.43% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 56.36% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.37% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 67.65% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.03% |
Bayesball Picks 