Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Recent posts

  • 10/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +165, 17.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays58.85%0.5595+165

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays58.85%

  • 10/27/25 Recap

    Wow, what a game. Worth giving up my sleep.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/1
    Net Units: -1.00u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 21/32
    Sportsbook favorites won: 20/32
    Picks won: 12/22
    Net Units: +2.13u
    ROI: 9.68%

  • 10/27/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +170, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays44.56%0.2032+170

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers55.44%

  • 10/25/25 Recap

    Unfortunate home loss for the Jays.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/1
    Net Units: -1.00u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 20/31
    Sportsbook favorites won: 19/31
    Picks won: 12/21
    Net Units: +3.13u
    ROI: 14.90%

  • 10/25/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +120, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays50.00%0.1000+120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers50.00%

  • 10/24/25 Recap

    Very big Blue Jays win.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.35u
    ROI: 135.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 19/30
    Sportsbook favorites won: 18/30
    Picks won: 12/20
    Net Units: +4.13u
    ROI: 20.65%

  • 10/24/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +135, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.81%0.2176+135

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.81%

  • 10/18/25 Recap

    Very unfortunate Mariners loss.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 0/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/1
    Net Units: -1.00u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 18/29
    Sportsbook favorites won: 18/29
    Picks won: 11/19
    Net Units: +2.78u
    ROI: 14.63%

  • 10/18/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Seattle Mariners ML +105, 2.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners50.11%0.0272+105

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Seattle Mariners vs Toronto Blue JaysSeattle Mariners50.11%

  • 10/17/25 Recap

    Mariners go to a game 7.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 0/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/1
    Net Units: -1.00u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 18/28
    Sportsbook favorites won: 17/28
    Picks won: 11/18
    Net Units: +3.78u
    ROI: 21.00%