Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/30/26 Recap

      The Giants stink.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 8/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
      Picks won: 4/8
      Net Units: -0.10u
      ROI: -1.25%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 18/28
      Sportsbook favorites won: 18/28
      Picks won: 8/14
      Net Units: +1.97u
      ROI: 14.07%

    • 6/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Chicago White Sox ML +125, 4%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 15.5%
      • New York Mets ML -110, 12.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 10%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 19.5%
      • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185, 10%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +155, 12.5%
      • San Francisco Giants ML -105, 14.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox49.10%0.1047+125
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.05%0.0466+105
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates55.66%0.5585+180
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers52.00%0.0141-125
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets64.15%0.2252-110
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox62.05%0.0610-140
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals56.36%0.2399+120
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays54.52%0.0085-115
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds63.97%0.5672+140
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs54.48%0.0697+135
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins55.01%0.0287-115
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins61.38%0.0497-140
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers71.95%0.1080-185
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels54.12%0.3800+155
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants65.61%0.2795-105

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.90%
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.05%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates55.66%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers52.00%
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets64.15%
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox62.05%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals56.36%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays54.52%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds63.97%
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs54.48%
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins55.01%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins61.38%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers71.95%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels54.12%
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants65.61%

    • 6/29/26 Recap

      Pretty good as far as Mondays go.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.07u
      ROI: 34.50%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.07u
      ROI: 34.50%

    • 6/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 12%
      • Detroit Tigers ML +110, 20%
      • New York Mets ML +105, 11.5%
      • Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5%
      • Milwaukee Brewers ML -140, 16.5%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +170, 12.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox50.72%0.0905+115
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates64.01%0.2226-110
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers68.42%0.4369+110
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets60.40%0.2382+105
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals39.49%-0.0324+145
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers51.20%0.2033+135
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers72.15%0.2337-140
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.58%0.0559-165
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros61.03%0.0620-135
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins60.53%-0.0012-155
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers53.25%-0.0042-115
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels52.67%0.4222+170
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants46.36%-0.0034+115

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox50.72%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates64.01%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers68.42%
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets60.40%
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox60.51%
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers51.20%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers72.15%
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.58%
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros61.03%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins60.53%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers53.25%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels52.67%
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks53.64%

    • 6/28/26 Recap

      Horrible week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 9/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.10u
      ROI: 35.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 44/96
      Sportsbook favorites won: 51/96
      Picks won: 19/48
      Net Units: -9.34u
      ROI: -19.46%

    • 6/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Texas Rangers ML +110, 8.5%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -190, 12.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +140, 19.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +120, 14%
      • Miami Marlins ML +105, 12%
      • San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.23%-0.0174-190
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates50.21%0.0705+115
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.55%0.1875+110
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.37%0.0074+100
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.88%0.0101-110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays74.14%0.1344-190
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies59.91%-0.0115-155
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies64.31%0.5433+140
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals60.86%0.3268+120
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs40.52%-0.0073+145
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins60.95%0.2495+105
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels49.84%-0.0032+100
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.60%0.2360+135
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres48.43%0.0558+120
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.76%-0.0250+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.23%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates50.21%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.55%
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.37%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.88%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays74.14%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies59.91%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies64.31%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals60.86%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.48%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins60.95%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsAthletics50.16%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.60%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers51.57%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.76%

    • 6/27/26 Recap

      Just another bad day for this week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 7/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
      Picks won: 3/8
      Net Units: -1.27u
      ROI: -15.88%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 35/81
      Sportsbook favorites won: 43/81
      Picks won: 15/42
      Net Units: -11.44u
      ROI: -27.24%

    • 6/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Texas Rangers ML +155, 7%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 14.5%
      • Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 10%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +105, 15.5%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 21.5%
      • Chicago Cubs ML +135, 6.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML -145, 10%
      • San Diego Padres ML +165, 6.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.71%-0.0132-135
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.21%0.0375-105
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers47.81%0.2190+155
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds67.64%0.2377-120
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies58.23%0.2228+110
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals64.43%0.3207+105
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysArizona Diamondbacks69.17%0.5080+120
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals53.00%0.0494+100
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners63.53%0.0610-150
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies46.31%0.0095+120
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs49.78%0.1697+135
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.30%0.1373-145
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres46.02%0.2196+165
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants59.06%0.0277-135
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.59%0.0208-115

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.71%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.21%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays52.19%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds67.64%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies58.23%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals64.43%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysArizona Diamondbacks69.17%
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals53.00%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners63.53%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins53.69%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers50.22%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.30%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers53.98%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants59.06%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.59%

    • 6/26/26 Recap

      It’s been an awful day and an awful week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 6/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
      Picks won: 2/8
      Net Units: -4.34u
      ROI: -54.25%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 28/66
      Sportsbook favorites won: 36/66
      Picks won: 12/34
      Net Units: -10.17u
      ROI: -29.91%

    • 6/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Washington Nationals ML +115, 14%
      • Texas Rangers ML -105, 8.5%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -140, 9%
      • New York Yankees ML -110, 7.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +105, 17.5%
      • Chicago Cubs ML +200, 11.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +145, 12.5%
      • San Francisco Giants ML +100, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers54.15%0.0127-115
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.54%-0.0125-190
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals61.45%0.3212+115
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers59.58%0.1617-105
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners50.55%-0.0345-110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays65.84%0.1258-140
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsNew York Mets43.35%0.0404+140
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees59.45%0.1355-110
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals66.68%0.3670+105
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs48.49%0.4547+200
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies55.65%0.3633+145
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.84%0.0475-110
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.66%0.0659-105
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers57.12%-0.0347-145
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*San Francisco Giants55.58%0.1004+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers54.15%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.54%
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals61.45%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers59.58%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners50.55%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays65.84%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies56.65%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees59.45%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals66.68%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers51.51%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies55.65%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.84%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.66%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers57.12%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*San Francisco Giants55.58%

      *Missing Giants starting pitcher