That Royals choke was disgusting.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.87u
ROI: 17.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 30/52
Sportsbook favorites won: 28/52
Picks won: 12/22
Net Units: +3.18u
ROI: 14.45%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.09% | 0.0869 | -150 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.26% | 0.1937 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 60.46% | 0.2092 | +100 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.11% | 0.0679 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.92% | 0.1136 | -130 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 47.90% | 0.0778 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 67.23% | 0.0690 | -170 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 52.47% | 0.1019 | +110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 51.16% | 0.1510 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.09% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.26% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 60.46% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.11% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.92% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 52.10% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 67.23% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 52.47% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 51.16% |
Cubs choked. Pretty good day though. Amazing Os comeback.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +2.09u
ROI: 29.86%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 21/42
Picks won: 9/17
Net Units: +2.31u
ROI: 13.59%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 46.12% | 0.1299 | +145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.96% | -0.0089 | -135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% | 0.0021 | +100 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% | 0.2250 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.69% | 0.0596 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 47.25% | -0.0314 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 47.12% | 0.0601 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% | 0.0462 | -150 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.38% | 0.2277 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 51.28% | 0.0475 | +115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.39% | 0.3324 | +145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 57.68% | -0.0253 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 62.36% | 0.1411 | -120 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 65.22% | 0.1349 | -135 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.20% | 0.0922 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 50.70% | 0.1914 | +135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.88% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.96% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.10% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers | 52.75% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 52.88% |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.38% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 51.28% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 54.39% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 57.68% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 62.36% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Houston Astros | 65.22% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.20% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Seattle Mariners | 50.70% |
Feels like I can never have a good day without the next day ruining it. Crazy choke by the Pirates and Royals.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 0/3
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -100%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 15/26
Sportsbook favorites won: 13/26
Picks won: 5/10
Net Units: +0.22u
ROI: 2.20%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 42.23% | -0.0052 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 45.31% | -0.0123 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.60% | 0.1146 | -115 |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays* | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.62% | 0.0105 | -185 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.65% | 0.0780 | -115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Toronto Blue Jays | 44.54% | -0.0291 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds* | Cleveland Guardians | 53.19% | N/A | N/A |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.24% | 0.2277 | +135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 47.95% | 0.1267 | +135 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 44.84% | -0.0359 | +115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Chicago Cubs | 55.20% | 0.0323 | -115 |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 53.06% | 0.0135 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.26% | 0.1066 | -150 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 68.82% | 0.0185 | -210 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 42.89% | -0.0349 | +125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Seattle Mariners | 44.49% | 0.1345 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.67% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.69% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.60% |
| Texas Rangers vs Tampa Bay Rays* | Tampa Bay Rays | 65.62% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 55.46% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds* | Cleveland Guardians | 53.19% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.24% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 52.05% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 55.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals* | Chicago Cubs | 55.20% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 53.06% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 66.26% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 68.82% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.11% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.51% |
*Missing starting pitcher
Angels trolled unfortunately but still an amazing day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11
Picks won: 5/7
Net Units: +3.22u
ROI: 46.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/11
Picks won: 5/7
Net Units: +3.22u
ROI: 46.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 56.16% | -0.0396 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.69% | 0.1819 | +100 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.54% | -0.0004 | -125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 48.27% | 0.1825 | +145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 74.44% | 0.2952 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cleveland Guardians | 42.29% | 0.0361 | +145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 59.46% | 0.1594 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 68.96% | 0.1655 | -145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 51.79% | ||
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 68.73% | 0.3608 | +100 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 62.19% | -0.0237 | -175 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.08% | 0.0983 | +115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 56.16% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Detroit Tigers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.69% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.54% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami Marlins | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.73% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 74.44% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.71% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 59.46% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago White Sox | New York Yankees | 68.96% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | Chicago Cubs | 51.79% |
| Houston Astros vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 68.73% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Athletics | Boston Red Sox | 62.19% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.08% |
Great day but hate to see another Orioles choke.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.95u
ROI: 15.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 50/95
Sportsbook favorites won: 50/95
Picks won: 20/38
Net Units: +2.90u
ROI: 7.63%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.37% | 0.0506 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.28% | 0.2208 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.54% | 0.0539 | -130 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.16% | -0.0339 | -145 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.87% | 0.2582 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Kansas City Royals | 48.15% | 0.2279 | +155 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.18% | 0.1515 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.47% | 0.0345 | -125 |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 57.94% | -0.0116 | +135 |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.45% | 0.0743 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 75.38% | -0.0276 | -345 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 56.15% | 0.2073 | +115 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 49.23% | -0.0399 | -105 |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 52.17% | 0.3251 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 58.37% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.28% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.54% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.16% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 65.87% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 51.85% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.18% |
| San Diego Padres vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 57.47% |
| Athletics vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 57.94% |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 75.38% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 56.15% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Angels | 50.77% |
| New York Yankees vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Yankees | 52.17% |
Bayesball Picks 