Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Testing Period

  • 4/27/26 Baseball Picks

    First Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Minnesota Twins ML +120, 8%
    • Miami Marlins ML +230, 6%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays46.49%0.0135+120
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals46.15%-0.0309+110
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.53%0.0351-140
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins50.00%0.0900+120
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox 48.21%-0.0358+100
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees62.58%-0.0363-185
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs52.54%0.0034-110
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins34.53%0.1394+230

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians53.51%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates53.85%
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays60.53%
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins50.00%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxLos Angeles Angels51.79%
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees62.58%
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs52.54%
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers65.47%

  • Bayesball Season Is Back!

    I’ll begin with some testing for a couple of weeks before starting to bet with the model again. I think the testing will start around 4/27.

  • 11/1/25 Recap

    Unfortunately, the Dodgers won the World Series. My model was surprisingly solid for the postseason, though I did miss a few of the earlier matches. Although it was a low sample size, hopefully this means my model is effective for the postseason as well. Anyways, baseball season is over, so see y’all next year.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/0
    Net Units: 0.00u
    ROI: 0.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 24/36
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/36
    Picks won: 14/25
    Net Units: +4.48u
    ROI: 17.92%

  • 11/1/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • No picks

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays44.62%-0.0406+120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers55.38%

  • 10/31/25 Recap

    Dodgers probably end up winning the World Series again.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 1/1
    Picks won: 0/1
    Net Units: -1.00u
    ROI: -100.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 23/35
    Sportsbook favorites won: 21/35
    Picks won: 14/25
    Net Units: +4.48u
    ROI: 17.92%

  • 10/31/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +120, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays50.00%0.1000+120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Toronto Blue JaysLos Angeles Dodgers50.00%

  • 10/29/25 Recap

    Jays are back to home to hopefully close it out

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 0/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.70u
    ROI: 170.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/34
    Sportsbook favorites won: 20/34
    Picks won: 14/24
    Net Units: +5.48u
    ROI: 22.83%

  • 10/29/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +175, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays49.27%0.3550+175

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers50.73%

  • 10/28/25 Recap

    Hope Jays can continue to win.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 1/1
    Sportsbook favorites won: 0/1
    Picks won: 1/1
    Net Units: +1.65u
    ROI: 165.00%

    Post-Season Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/33
    Sportsbook favorites won: 20/33
    Picks won: 13/23
    Net Units: +3.78u
    ROI: 16.43%

  • 10/28/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Toronto Blue Jays ML +165, 17.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays58.85%0.5595+165

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted TeamProbability
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Los Angeles DodgersToronto Blue Jays58.85%