Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Detroit Tigers ML -115, 12.5%
• Milwaukee Brewers ML +105, 5%
• Washington Nationals ML +125, 11%
• Chicago Cubs ML -115, 6%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -120, 8%
• Miami Marlins ML -120, 12.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML +125, 9.5%
• Arizona Diamondbacks ML +170, 11.5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	65.45%	0.2108	-115
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Milwaukee Brewers	54.00%	0.1071	+105
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	56.58%	0.2731	+125
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	Kansas City Royals	46.82%	0.1003	+135
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	Chicago Cubs	59.78%	0.1060	-115
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.09%	0.1362	-120
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	65.94%	0.2067	-120
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	Boston Red Sox	54.74%	0.2316	+125
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	61.20%	-0.0391	-175
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Texas Rangers	46.99%	0.0245	+120
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	67.43%	0.0923	-160
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	45.36%	0.0660	+135
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	57.80%	0.0405	-125
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Arizona Diamondbacks	51.59%	0.3930	+170
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	Colorado Rockies	48.62%	0.0940	+125

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	65.45%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Milwaukee Brewers	54.00%
New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	56.58%
Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	53.18%
Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds	Chicago Cubs	59.78%
Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	62.09%
Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	65.94%
Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets	Boston Red Sox	54.74%
Athletics vs Chicago White Sox	Chicago White Sox	61.20%
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers	Houston Astros	53.01%
Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	67.43%
Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals	Atlanta Braves	54.64%
Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	57.80%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers	Arizona Diamondbacks	51.59%
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	51.38%