My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Texas Rangers ML +110, 8.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -190, 12.5%
- Colorado Rockies ML +140, 19.5%
- Kansas City Royals ML +120, 14%
- Miami Marlins ML +105, 12%
- San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 64.23% | -0.0174 | -190 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.21% | 0.0705 | +115 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 56.55% | 0.1875 | +110 |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.37% | 0.0074 | +100 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 52.88% | 0.0101 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 74.14% | 0.1344 | -190 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.91% | -0.0115 | -155 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins | Colorado Rockies | 64.31% | 0.5433 | +140 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 60.86% | 0.3268 | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | 40.52% | -0.0073 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals | Miami Marlins | 60.95% | 0.2495 | +105 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 49.84% | -0.0032 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 52.60% | 0.2360 | +135 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 48.43% | 0.0558 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.76% | -0.0250 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 64.23% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.21% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 56.55% |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.37% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 52.88% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 74.14% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 59.91% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins | Colorado Rockies | 64.31% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 60.86% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.48% |
| Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals | Miami Marlins | 60.95% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Athletics | 50.16% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 52.60% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.57% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.76% |
Bayesball Picks 
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