Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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Current Model Stats:
Testing Period

  • 5/2/26 Baseball Picks

    Sixth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 6.5%
    • Miami Marlins ML -120, 7.5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 4.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +170, 18%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles46.80%0.0999+135
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins48.83%0.0254+110
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs63.45%0.0088-170
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsCleveland Guardians47.87%0.0053+110
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds54.42%0.1428+110
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals47.29%0.0168+115
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox58.40%0.0511-125
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins61.42%0.1240-120
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysSan Francisco Giants55.96%0.0912-105
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.42%0.1009+110
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.80%-0.0288-140
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies*Colorado Rockies39.72%0.1321+185
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresChicago White Sox60.54%0.6345+170
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels50.83%0.0674+110
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersKansas City Royals50.00%0.0900+120

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees53.20%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays51.17%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs63.45%
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsAthletics52.13%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds54.42%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers52.71%
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox58.40%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins61.42%
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysSan Francisco Giants55.96%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.42%
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.80%
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado Rockies*Atlanta Braves60.28%
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresChicago White Sox60.54%
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels50.83%
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners50.00%

    *Missing Rockies starting pitcher

  • 5/1/26 Recap

    Ok day today. Kinda sucks that both the Rockies and Angels choked hard.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 10/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
    Picks won: 2/5
    Net Units: -0.85u
    ROI: -17.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 32/62
    Sportsbook favorites won: 31/62
    Picks won: 15/24
    Net Units: +8.57u
    ROI: 35.71%

  • 5/1/26 Baseball Picks

    Fifth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Baltimore Orioles ML +155, 9%
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -105, 8.5%
    • Colorado Rockies ML +165, 6.5%
    • Los Angeles Angels ML +105, 15%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +120, 25%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs51.56%0.0414+115
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersTexas Rangers48.75%-0.0347+100
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds48.93%0.0032+105
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals41.93%-0.0146+135
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles50.17%0.2792+155
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox57.83%0.0699-115
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysSan Francisco Giants47.12%-0.0104+110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins48.39%-0.0080+105
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays59.61%0.1625-105
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals42.43%0.0820+155
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies45.87%0.2155+165
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels64.16%0.3153+105
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsCleveland Guardians54.51%0.0629-105
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresChicago White Sox73.25%0.6115+120
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners59.99%-0.0101-155

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs51.56%
    Texas Rangers vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers51.25%
    Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates51.07%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs Washington NationalsMilwaukee Brewers58.07%
    Baltimore Orioles vs New York YankeesBaltimore Orioles50.17%
    Houston Astros vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox57.83%
    San Francisco Giants vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays52.88%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Miami MarlinsPhiladelphia Phillies51.61%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays59.61%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs St. Louis CardinalsLos Angeles Dodgers57.57%
    Atlanta Braves vs Colorado RockiesAtlanta Braves54.13%
    New York Mets vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels64.16%
    Cleveland Guardians vs AthleticsCleveland Guardians54.51%
    Chicago White Sox vs San Diego PadresChicago White Sox73.25%
    Kansas City Royals vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners59.99%

  • 4/30/26 Recap

    Pretty bad day for both me and the book.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/11
    Sportsbook favorites won: 4/11
    Picks won: 1/3
    Net Units: -0.15u
    ROI: -5.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 22/47
    Sportsbook favorites won: 22/47
    Picks won: 13/19
    Net Units: +9.42u
    ROI: 49.58%

  • 4/30/26 Baseball Picks

    Fourth Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +185, 4%
    • Colorado Rockies ML +145, 7.5%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +105, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers50.00%-0.0250-105
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles71.61%0.3106-120
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals40.60%0.1572+185
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*San Francisco Giants48.12%0.0587+120
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles68.86%0.2601-120
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies50.00%0.2250+145
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals39.38%0.1027+180
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks58.24%0.1939+105
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics54.93%-0.0113-125
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*San Francisco Giants54.26%0.1938+120
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays61.72%0.0739-135

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupExpected WinnerProbability
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves50.00%
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles71.61%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates59.40%
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*Philadelphia Phillies51.88%
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles68.86%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies50.00%
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNew York Mets60.62%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks58.24%
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsAthletics54.93%
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia Phillies*San Francisco Giants54.26%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota TwinsToronto Blue Jays61.72%

    * Missing starting pitcher for teams

  • 4/29/26 Recap

    Lowkey wish that this was later and not during testing. 6/6 is such a good day.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/13
    Sportsbook favorites won: 5/13
    Picks won: 6/6
    Net Units: +6.43u
    ROI: 107.17%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 19/36
    Sportsbook favorites won: 18/36
    Picks won: 12/16
    Net Units: +9.57u
    ROI: 59.81%

  • 4/29/26 Baseball Picks

    Third Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Chicago White Sox ML +110, 7.5%
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -130, 10%
    • Chicago Cubs ML -110, 20%
    • Colorado Rockies ML +125, 16%
    • Washington Nationals ML +140, 15%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +100, 14%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays54.64%0.0928+100
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox55.43%0.1641+110
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins47.13%-0.0103+110
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees53.94%-0.0129-120
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays64.71%0.1453-130
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins38.83%0.0871+180
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs71.07%0.3574-110
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles60.36%0.1046-120
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies62.22%0.4000+125
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals49.18%0.1065+125
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants48.72%0.0718+120
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals59.78%0.4347+140
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers60.17%0.0048-150
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks64.12%0.2824+100
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsKansas City Royals56.59%0.1035-105

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupExpected WinnerProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays54.64%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox55.43%
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsSeattle Mariners52.87%
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees53.94%
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays64.71%
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers61.17%
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs71.07%
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles60.36%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies62.22%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates50.82%
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies51.28%
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals59.78%
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers60.17%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersArizona Diamondbacks64.12%
    Kansas City Royals vs AthleticsKansas City Royals56.59%

  • 4/28/26 Recap

    Pretty solid day. Marlins actually clutched up this time.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 9/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
    Picks won: 5/8
    Net Units: +2.94u
    ROI: 36.75%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 12/23
    Sportsbook favorites won: 13/23
    Picks won: 6/10
    Net Units: +3.14u
    ROI: 31.40%

  • 4/28/26 Baseball Picks

    Second Day of Testing Period

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +110, 7.5%
    • Baltimore Orioles ML -135, 16%
    • Colorado Rockies ML +165, 13.5%
    • San Francisco Giants ML +125, 16%
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 6%
    • Washington Nationals ML +155, 7%
    • Chicago Cubs ML -120, 10%
    • Miami Marlins ML +240, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays55.51%0.1656+110
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles71.19%0.2387-135
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.67%0.4488+165
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesSt. Louis Cardinals42.42%-0.0242+130
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants62.47%0.4057+125
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays59.39%0.1105-115
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals50.00%0.2700+155
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers50.00%0.0250+105
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins51.55%0.0567+105
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%0.0500+110
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.31%0.0498-130
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees57.29%0.0484-120
    Kansas City Royals vs Athletics*Kansas City Royals51.24%-0.0419-115
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs64.56%0.1815-120
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersMiami Marlins36.43%0.2385+240

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland GuardiansTampa Bay Rays55.51%
    Houston Astros vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles71.19%
    Colorado Rockies vs Cincinnati RedsColorado Rockies54.67%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates57.58%
    San Francisco Giants vs Philadelphia PhilliesSan Francisco Giants62.47%
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays59.39%
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNew York Mets50.00%
    Detroit Tigers vs Atlanta BravesDetroit Tigers50.00%
    Seattle Mariners vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins51.55%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.31%
    New York Yankees vs Texas RangersNew York Yankees57.29%
    Kansas City Royals vs Athletics*Kansas City Royals51.24%
    Chicago Cubs vs San Diego PadresChicago Cubs64.56%
    Miami Marlins vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.57%

    *Missing starting pitcher data for Athletics

  • 4/27/26 Recap

    Marlins choked, which kinda sucks, but still have a positive day.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/8
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.20u
    ROI: 10%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 3/8
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.20u
    ROI: 10%