Knew this would happen but ofc I got touched today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -3.25u
ROI: -40.62%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 43/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 47/79
Picks won: 18/38
Net Units: -2.12u
ROI: -5.58%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% | -0.0018 | -170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% | 0.1984 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% | 0.1912 | +100 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% | -0.0363 | -160 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% | 0.2817 | -125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% | 0.0718 | -110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.37% | -0.0109 | +120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% | 0.5291 | +140 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% | 0.2685 | +140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 45.84% | -0.0373 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% | 0.3411 | +125 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 40.68% | -0.0238 | +140 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% | 0.1272 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% | 0.1141 | -155 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | San Diego Padres | 30.52% | -0.0234 | +220 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.78% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 51.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 60.16% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 59.48% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 71.20% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 56.12% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.63% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | St. Louis Cardinals | 63.71% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 52.85% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 54.16% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 59.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Boston Red Sox | 59.32% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Athletics | 54.99% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.52% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.48% |
Good day, but who knows how long it’ll last.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
Picks won: 3/5
Net Units: +0.92u
ROI: 18.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 35/64
Sportsbook favorites won: 37/64
Picks won: 16/30
Net Units: +1.13u
ROI: 3.67%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% | 0.0006 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 43.30% | -0.0041 | +130 |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% | 0.5253 | +180 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% | 0.2598 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 45.86% | -0.0369 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% | 0.0904 | -105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% | -0.0189 | -150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% | 0.214 | -110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% | 0.0635 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% | 0.3449 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% | 0.0551 | -145 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% | -0.0247 | -250 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% | 0.1914 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 57.51% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.70% |
| Minnesota Twins vs New York Yankees | Minnesota Twins | 54.47% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Cincinnati Reds | Baltimore Orioles | 68.84% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.14% |
| New York Mets vs Atlanta Braves | New York Mets | 55.92% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 58.75% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Houston Astros | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.60% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 56.87% |
| Miami Marlins vs Athletics | Miami Marlins | 61.69% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Milwaukee Brewers | 62.43% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 69.66% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.12% |
Can’t have a good week without a day nuking all the progress.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9
Picks won: 0/3
Net Units: -3.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 28/51
Sportsbook favorites won: 29/51
Picks won: 13/25
Net Units: +0.21u
ROI: 0.84%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.70% | 0.0018 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.30% | 0.0909 | -190 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 59.31% | 0.0023 | -145 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55.35% | 0.0573 | -110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.37% | 0.0385 | -110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.59% | 0.0985 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.10% | 0.0116 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 53.47% | 0.4971 | +180 |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 48.60% | 0.2878 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 52.30% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.30% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 59.31% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 55.35% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.37% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 53.59% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.10% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 53.47% |
| San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.40% |
Pretty solid day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 5/8
Net Units: +1.24u
ROI: 15.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 25/42
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/42
Picks won: 13/22
Net Units: +3.21u
ROI: 14.59%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 63.82% | 0.0913 | -140 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.74% | 0.1410 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Washington Nationals | 48.42% | 0.0651 | +120 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 54.62% | 0.1907 | +120 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 62.92% | 0.1326 | -125 |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 49.27% | -0.0392 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.96% | 0.1172 | +115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.82% | 0.1512 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 67.26% | 0.1704 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 49.58% | 0.0412 | +110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 73.76% | 0.1875 | -165 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 62.23% | 0.0018 | -165 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 72.41% | 0.1513 | -170 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 53.04% | 0.0608 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 63.82% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 59.74% |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 51.58% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 54.62% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 62.92% |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 50.73% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.96% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.82% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 67.26% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.42% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 73.76% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 62.23% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 72.41% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 53.04% |
*Missing starting pitchers
The Giants stink.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.10u
ROI: -1.25%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 18/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 18/28
Picks won: 8/14
Net Units: +1.97u
ROI: 14.07%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago White Sox | 49.10% | 0.1047 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.05% | 0.0466 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.66% | 0.5585 | +180 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 52.00% | 0.0141 | -125 |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 64.15% | 0.2252 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.05% | 0.0610 | -140 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.36% | 0.2399 | +120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.52% | 0.0085 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 63.97% | 0.5672 | +140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.48% | 0.0697 | +135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 55.01% | 0.0287 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 61.38% | 0.0497 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.95% | 0.1080 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 54.12% | 0.3800 | +155 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 65.61% | 0.2795 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 50.90% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.05% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.66% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 52.00% |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 64.15% |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.05% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.36% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 63.97% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.48% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 55.01% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 61.38% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.95% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 54.12% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 65.61% |
Bayesball Picks 