Solid day but seeing the Giants troll every day like that is painful.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 12/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +2.82u
ROI: 47.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/23
Sportsbook favorites won: 13/23
Picks won: 8/12
Net Units: +4.71u
ROI: 39.25%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 70.34% | 0.1747 | -150 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 46.86% | 0.0543 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% | 0.0153 | -140 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 52.12% | 0.7199 | +230 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | St. Louis Cardinals | 42.08% | 0.1151 | +165 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% | 0.0500 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 43.32% | -0.0253 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.18% | 0.4216 | +125 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 39.84% | -0.0433 | +140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 46.94% | 0.3144 | +180 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 46.92% | 0.2667 | +170 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.17% | 0.0115 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.55% | -0.0412 | -165 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 48.13% | -0.0133 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.96% | 0.1541 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 70.34% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 53.14% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 52.12% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 57.92% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 56.68% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 63.18% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 60.14% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.06% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.08% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 51.83% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.55% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.96% |
The Nats bullpen is filled with terrorists. Good day nonetheless though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 3/8
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +1.89u
ROI: 31.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/8
Sportsbook favorites won: 3/8
Picks won: 4/6
Net Units: +1.89u
ROI: 31.50%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 69.02% | 0.5529 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 67.48% | -0.0216 | -220 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.37% | 0.1146 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 62.38% | 0.2788 | +105 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Toronto Blue Jays | 48.51% | 0.0187 | +110 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 70.06% | 0.0789 | -185 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 57.72% | 0.1429 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 69.02% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 67.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.37% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 62.38% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 51.49% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 70.06% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 57.72% |
A pretty good day to take off the heat.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 5/8
Net Units: +3.02u
ROI: 37.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/97
Sportsbook favorites won: 56/97
Picks won: 21/45
Net Units: -1.21u
ROI: -2.69%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.54% | 0.2496 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 58.98% | 0.2091 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 58.57% | 0.2301 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Arizona Diamondbacks | 43.34% | 0.0618 | +145 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 47.46% | 0.0346 | +120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.67% | 0.0299 | -150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 72.79% | 0.3321 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 65.66% | 0.1097 | -145 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 55.64% | 0.0293 | -115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 63.36% | 0.2989 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 49.12% | 0.3999 | +185 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 57.45% | 0.0742 | -115 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 47.61% | 0.0713 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 44.76% | -0.0377 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 53.40% | 0.3618 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 55.54% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 58.98% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 58.57% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 56.66% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 52.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.67% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 72.79% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 65.66% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 55.64% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 63.36% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.88% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 57.45% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 52.39% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 55.24% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 53.40% |
Horrendous start to August. Skubal to the Dodgers too. Worst day of baseball ever.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 2/8
Net Units: -4.67u
ROI: 58.38%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 41/82
Sportsbook favorites won: 46/82
Picks won: 16/37
Net Units: -4.23u
ROI: -11.43%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 45.92% | 0.0010 | +120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 41.75% | -0.0189 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.01% | 0.0814 | -170 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.07% | 0.0627 | -135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 48.12% | -0.0376 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 52.42% | 0.1533 | +120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.51% | 0.0172 | -125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.68% | 0.0414 | -165 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.81% | 0.3414 | +155 |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 60.96% | 0.1278 | -115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 66.83% | 0.3232 | +100 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 56.39% | 0.2124 | +115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.88% | -0.0319 | -170 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.85% | 0.0370 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 63.31% | 0.1017 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.08% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.25% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.01% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 61.07% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.88% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 52.42% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 56.51% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 64.68% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.81% |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 60.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 66.83% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Francisco Giants | 56.39% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 60.88% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 51.85% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 63.31% |
Awful day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.74u
ROI: 39.14%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 36/67
Sportsbook favorites won: 36/67
Picks won: 14/29
Net Units: +0.44u
ROI: 1.52%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 51.79% | 0.2171 | +135 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.33% | 0.0498 | -135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 58.84% | 0.1003 | -115 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.56% | 0.2388 | +145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 63.76% | 0.0903 | -140 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.49% | 0.0970 | -155 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.45% | 0.0170 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 64.31% | 0.3184 | +105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.61% | -0.0490 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 60.85% | 0.1623 | -110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.57% | 0.0585 | -170 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 64.29% | 0.0415 | -160 |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.19% | 0.0262 | -155 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Boston Red Sox | 48.47% | -0.0064 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Minnesota Twins | 58.10% | 0.0683 | +155 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Yankees vs Chicago Cubs | New York Yankees | 51.79% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati Reds | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 58.84% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Toronto Blue Jays | St. Louis Cardinals | 50.56% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 63.76% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.49% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 58.45% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 64.31% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 53.61% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Colorado Rockies | Kansas City Royals | 60.85% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Los Angeles Angels | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.57% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Athletics | Detroit Tigers | 64.29% |
| San Francisco Giants vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 62.19% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.53% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 58.10% |
Bayesball Picks 