Really solid day and week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 5/7
Net Units: +2.73u
ROI: 39.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 57/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 52/94
Picks won: 29/48
Net Units: +11.57u
ROI: 24.10%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.92% | -0.0274 | -110 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 72.56% | 0.0158 | -250 |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 43.76% | -0.0460 | +120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.77% | 0.2627 | +170 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 62.71% | 0.0598 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.30% | 0.0904 | -150 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.27% | 0.2754 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 47.28% | -0.0307 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Minnesota Twins | 35.40% | 0.1327 | +220 |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | 41.59% | -0.0017 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.97% | 0.2593 | +110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 64.26% | 0.1567 | -125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.33% | 0.1715 | -110 |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 51.71% | 0.0601 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 50.92% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 72.56% |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.24% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 53.23% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 62.71% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 65.30% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.27% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 52.72% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 64.60% |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 58.41% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.97% |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 64.26% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.33% |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 51.71% |
Another solid day. Was stuck on whether to bet both Athletics and Jays and now I’m feeling a bit dumb for not pulling the trigger.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +0.50u
ROI: 8.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 48/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 45/79
Picks won: 24/41
Net Units: +8.84u
ROI: 21.56%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 35.63% | 0.1402 | +220 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels | 55.51% | 0.3044 | +135 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays | 45.86% | 0.1007 | +140 |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.84% | 0.0769 | -130 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 49.84% | 0.1215 | +125 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago Cubs | 61.34% | -0.0248 | -170 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.41% | -0.0128 | -145 |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 58.28% | 0.1656 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 54.79% | 0.0026 | -120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | 45.05% | 0.0588 | +135 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% | 0.3315 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 46.75% | -0.0183 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 41.20% | 0.0919 | +165 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.74% | 0.2225 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 50.00% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 64.37% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Los Angeles Angels | 55.51% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.14% |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.84% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Cincinnati Reds | 50.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Chicago Cubs | 61.34% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 58.41% |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | Houston Astros | 58.28% |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 54.79% |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 54.95% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 59.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 53.25% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 58.80% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 61.74% |
Solid day but sucks that the Os and Marlins both choked like that.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 5/9
Net Units: +2.28u
ROI: 25.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 42/64
Sportsbook favorites won: 38/64
Picks won: 21/35
Net Units: +8.34u
ROI: 23.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 52.90% | 0.1375 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Toronto Blue Jays | 43.37% | 0.2359 | +185 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 81.97% | 0.5164 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.59% | -0.0098 | -145 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 39.94% | 0.2982 | +225 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 84.28% | 0.3906 | -155 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 64.14% | 0.0712 | -150 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.85% | 0.0449 | -185 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.91% | 0.2718 | +145 |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | Colorado Rockies | 40.10% | -0.0176 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.98% | 0.1470 | +125 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.46% | 0.2607 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.81% | 0.0437 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.13% | 0.2499 | +100 |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 46.35% | -0.0035 | +115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| New York Mets vs Pittsburgh Pirates | New York Mets | 52.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.63% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 81.97% |
| Atlanta Braves vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 58.59% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 60.06% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 84.28% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox | Cleveland Guardians | 64.14% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 67.85% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 51.91% |
| Colorado Rockies vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.90% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Texas Rangers | Baltimore Orioles | 50.98% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.46% |
| Houston Astros vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 55.81% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Seattle Mariners | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.13% |
| Detroit Tigers vs San Francisco Giants | Detroit Tigers | 53.65% |
Pretty good day. Shame Royals choked.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/11
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/11
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.62u
ROI: 8.86%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 34/49
Sportsbook favorites won: 31/49
Picks won: 16/26
Net Units: +6.06u
ROI: 23.31%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.46% | -0.0031 | -200 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 68.85% | 0.1084 | -165 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 53.48% | 0.0430 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.00% | 0.1179 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.45% | 0.1163 | +105 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.85% | 0.1244 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 43.20% | 0.6414 | +280 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | 43.37% | 0.1017 | +155 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 44.60% | 0.0035 | +125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.80% | 0.1124 | -125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% | -0.0266 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 66.46% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 68.85% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 53.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.00% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.45% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 54.85% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 56.80% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 56.63% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.40% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 61.80% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 52.05% |
Solid day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 12/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.73u
ROI: 10.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 26/38
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/38
Picks won: 12/19
Net Units: +5.44u
ROI: 28.63%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.00% | 0.0472 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 61.69% | 0.1289 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | San Francisco Giants | 44.39 | 0.1099 | +150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.70% | 0.0806 | -160 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.55% | -0.0330 | -140 |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 57.42% | 0.0738 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.01% | -0.0423 | -140 |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 59.91% | 0.4678 | +145 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.26% | -0.0222 | -155 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Chicago White Sox | 50.00% | 0.0250 | +105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 54.36% | 0.1415 | +110 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.72% | 0.1478 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Pittsburgh Pirates | 49.22% | 0.0583 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 61.61% | 0.1768 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 51.96% | 0.1692 | +125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 68.00% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 61.69% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 55.61% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Colorado Rockies | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.70% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 56.55% |
| New York Mets vs Cleveland Guardians | New York Mets | 57.42% |
| Athletics vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 56.01% |
| Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Washington Nationals | 59.91% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 59.26% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% |
| Miami Marlins vs Atlanta Braves | Miami Marlins | 54.36% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 62.72% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.78% |
| San Diego Padres vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Diego Padres | 61.61% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Seattle Mariners | Detroit Tigers | 51.96% |
Bayesball Picks 