Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 5/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Boston Red Sox ML +100, 20%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +115, 4.5%
      • Detroit Tigers ML -115, 8.5%
      • Milwaukee Brewers ML -120, 18%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +125, 8%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves58.70%-0.0314-155
      San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals55.44%0.0588-110
      Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh PiratesMinnesota Twins47.19%0.0146+115
      Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles55.26%0.0334-115
      Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox69.52%0.3904+100
      Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay RaysLos Angeles Angels43.69%0.0922+150
      Miami Marlins vs New York MetsMiami Marlins51.26%0.0251+100
      Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals51.20%0.1008+115
      Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers61.59%0.1394-115
      Kansas City Royals vs Texas RangersKansas City Royals47.04%-0.0356+105
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers71.11%0.3012-120
      San Francisco Giants vs Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants62.40%-0.0078-170
      New York Yankees vs AthleticsNew York Yankees58.47%-0.0353-155
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle MarinersArizona Diamondbacks50.00%0.1250+125
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies51.90%0.0276+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati RedsAtlanta Braves58.70%
      San Diego Padres vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals55.44%
      Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates52.81%
      Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles55.26%
      Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox69.52%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays56.31%
      Miami Marlins vs New York MetsMiami Marlins51.26%
      Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals51.20%
      Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White SoxDetroit Tigers61.59%
      Kansas City Royals vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers52.96%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston AstrosMilwaukee Brewers71.11%
      San Francisco Giants vs Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants62.40%
      New York Yankees vs AthleticsNew York Yankees58.47%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners50.00%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles DodgersPhiladelphia Phillies51.90%

      *Missing Blue Jays starting pitcher

    • 5/27/26 Recap

      Hitting a little bit of an unlucky streak unfortunately.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 1/6
      Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6
      Picks won: 0/2
      Net Units: -2.00u
      ROI: -100.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 23/49
      Sportsbook favorites won: 25/49
      Picks won: 6/16
      Net Units: -4.28u
      ROI: -26.75%

    • 5/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Detroit Tigers ML -135, 10%
      • Minnesota Twins ML +120, 7.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers66.74%0.1613-135
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins53.87%0.1852+120
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves57.47%-0.0287-145
      Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesToronto Blue Jays46.61%-0.0211+110
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates66.50%0.0374-180
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers61.37%0.0249-150

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers66.74%
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins53.87%
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxAtlanta Braves57.47%
      Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.39%
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates66.50%
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers61.37%

    • 5/27/26 Recap

      Accurate on everything except my picks somehow lmao.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 11/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
      Picks won: 1/4
      Net Units: -2.38u
      ROI: -59.50%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 22/43
      Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43
      Picks won: 6/14
      Net Units: -2.28u
      ROI: -16.29%

    • 5/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Philadelphia Phillies ML -160, 14%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -115, 6.5%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -115, 7.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +325, 9.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysMiami Marlins41.89%-0.0155+135
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals45.04%0.1486+155
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers*Milwaukee Brewers59.44%-0.0193-155
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsAthletics48.77%0.0241+110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants51.93%0.0905+110
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies72.56%0.1755-160
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays59.78%0.1179-115
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.85%0.0076+105
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.37%0.1289-115
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox54.25%0.0850+100
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets52.66%-0.0364-120
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox55.41%-0.0027-125
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees65.54%0.0946-150
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.19%0.0207-170
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies38.00%0.6151+325

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays58.11%
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians54.96%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers*Milwaukee Brewers59.44%
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsSeattle Mariners51.23%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants51.93%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies72.56%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays59.78%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.85%
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates60.37%
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox54.25%
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets52.66%
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox55.41%
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees65.54%
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers64.19%
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers62.00%

      *Missing starting pitchers

    • 5/26/26 Recap

      Solid day today. Covers yesterday’s loss.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 7/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
      Picks won: 3/3
      Net Units: +2.60u
      ROI: 86.67%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 11/28
      Sportsbook favorites won: 12/28
      Picks won: 5/10
      Net Units: +0.10u
      ROI: 1.00%

    • 5/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Washington Nationals ML +115, 10%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -135, 14%
      • Texas Rangers ML -140, 10%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals57.81%0.2428+115
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays55.91%0.0455-115
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers57.87%-0.0105-140
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates69.55%0.2102-135
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox54.43%0.0614-105
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays58.65%-0.0087-145
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets*New York Mets50.00%0.0000+100
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins54.23%0.0032-115
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals37.57%0.0520+180
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals45.03%0.1032+145
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.71%0.1407-140
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsAthletics51.56%0.0312+100
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies48.28%-0.0308+105
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks54.29%0.0152-115
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies36.78%0.1035+200

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals57.81%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays55.91%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers57.87%
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates69.55%
      Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox54.43%
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays58.65%
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets*New York Mets50.00%
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins54.23%
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsNew York Yankees62.43%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers54.97%
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers66.71%
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsAthletics51.56%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres52.72%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks54.29%
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers63.22%

      *Missing Mets starting pitcher

    • 5/25/26 Recap

      Pretty awful start to the week but we still chilling cuz of last week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 4/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13
      Picks won: 2/7
      Net Units: -2.50u
      ROI: -35.71%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 4/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13
      Picks won: 2/7
      Net Units: -2.50u
      ROI: -35.71%

    • 5/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 9.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 8.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +125, 9%
      • Washington Nationals ML +145, 12.5%
      • Texas Rangers ML -135, 11.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +260, 5%
      • Athletics ML +100, 6.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
      Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates58.59%0.2011+105
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles45.21%-0.0279+115
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins53.10%-0.0283-120
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersSt. Louis Cardinals46.71%0.3079+180
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals54.52%0.2268+125
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets62.03%-0.0014-165
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsArizona Diamondbacks45.90%0.0098+120
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals55.96%0.3709+145
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies57.05%0.0098-130
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers67.34%0.1716-135
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays61.86%-0.0165-170
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersColorado Rockies34.66%0.2477+260
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsAthletics57.12%0.1309+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates58.59%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays54.79%
      Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White SoxMinnesota Twins53.10%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers53.29%
      New York Yankees vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals54.52%
      Cincinnati Reds vs New York MetsNew York Mets62.03%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants54.10%
      Washington Nationals vs Cleveland GuardiansWashington Nationals55.96%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego PadresPhiladelphia Phillies57.05%
      Houston Astros vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers67.34%
      Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays61.86%
      Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers65.34%
      Seattle Mariners vs AthleticsAthletics57.12%

    • 5/24/26 Recap

      Insanely good day to end an insanely good week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 9/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
      Picks won: 5/6
      Net Units: +5.63u
      ROI: 93.83%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 51/94
      Sportsbook favorites won: 49/94
      Picks won: 22/32
      Net Units: +15.32u
      ROI: 48.86%