My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Texas Rangers ML +155, 7%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 14.5%
- Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 10%
- Kansas City Royals ML +105, 15.5%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 21.5%
- Chicago Cubs ML +135, 6.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML -145, 10%
- San Diego Padres ML +165, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.71% | -0.0132 | -135 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.21% | 0.0375 | -105 |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Texas Rangers | 47.81% | 0.2190 | +155 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 67.64% | 0.2377 | -120 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 58.23% | 0.2228 | +110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 64.43% | 0.3207 | +105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona Diamondbacks | 69.17% | 0.5080 | +120 |
| Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | Washington Nationals | 53.00% | 0.0494 | +100 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 63.53% | 0.0610 | -150 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins | Colorado Rockies | 46.31% | 0.0095 | +120 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Chicago Cubs | 49.78% | 0.1697 | +135 |
| Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.30% | 0.1373 | -145 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 46.02% | 0.2196 | +165 |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 59.06% | 0.0277 | -135 |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 54.59% | 0.0208 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 56.71% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 53.21% |
| Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.19% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Cincinnati Reds | 67.64% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets | Philadelphia Phillies | 58.23% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox | Kansas City Royals | 64.43% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays | Arizona Diamondbacks | 69.17% |
| Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles | Washington Nationals | 53.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians | Seattle Mariners | 63.53% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 53.69% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.22% |
| Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.30% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.98% |
| Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 59.06% |
| Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 54.59% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment