My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 12%
- Detroit Tigers ML +110, 20%
- New York Mets ML +105, 11.5%
- Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5%
- Milwaukee Brewers ML -140, 16.5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +170, 12.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago White Sox | 50.72% | 0.0905 | +115 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.01% | 0.2226 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 68.42% | 0.4369 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 60.40% | 0.2382 | +105 |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Washington Nationals | 39.49% | -0.0324 | +145 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Texas Rangers | 51.20% | 0.2033 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 72.15% | 0.2337 | -140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 65.58% | 0.0559 | -165 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 61.03% | 0.0620 | -135 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 60.53% | -0.0012 | -155 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.25% | -0.0042 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 52.67% | 0.4222 | +170 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 46.36% | -0.0034 | +115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago White Sox | 50.72% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 64.01% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 68.42% |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 60.40% |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 60.51% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Texas Rangers | 51.20% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 72.15% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 65.58% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 61.03% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 60.53% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 53.25% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 52.67% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 53.64% |
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