Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Washington Nationals ML +115, 14%
• Texas Rangers ML -105, 8.5%
• Tampa Bay Rays ML -140, 9%
• New York Yankees ML -110, 7.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML +105, 17.5%
• Chicago Cubs ML +200, 11.5%
• Colorado Rockies ML +145, 12.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +100, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	54.15%	0.0127	-115
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	64.54%	-0.0125	-190
Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	Washington Nationals	61.45%	0.3212	+115
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	Texas Rangers	59.58%	0.1617	-105
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	Seattle Mariners	50.55%	-0.0345	-110
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	65.84%	0.1258	-140
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	New York Mets	43.35%	0.0404	+140
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	59.45%	0.1355	-110
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals	66.68%	0.3670	+105
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	Chicago Cubs	48.49%	0.4547	+200
Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	Colorado Rockies	55.65%	0.3633	+145
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	54.84%	0.0475	-110
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	54.66%	0.0659	-105
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.12%	-0.0347	-145
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*	San Francisco Giants	55.58%	0.1004	+100

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Houston Astros vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	54.15%
Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	64.54%
Washington Nationals vs Baltimore Orioles	Washington Nationals	61.45%
Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue Jays	Texas Rangers	59.58%
Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland Guardians	Seattle Mariners	50.55%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	65.84%
Philadelphia Phillies vs New York Mets	Philadelphia Phillies	56.65%
New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox	New York Yankees	59.45%
Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White Sox	Kansas City Royals	66.68%
Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	51.51%
Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota Twins	Colorado Rockies	55.65%
Miami Marlins vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	54.84%
Athletics vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	54.66%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres	Los Angeles Dodgers	57.12%
Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*	San Francisco Giants	55.58%

*Missing Giants starting pitcher