My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Chicago White Sox ML +125, 4%
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 15.5%
- New York Mets ML -110, 12.5%
- St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 10%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 19.5%
- Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185, 10%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +155, 12.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML -105, 14.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Chicago White Sox | 49.10% | 0.1047 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.05% | 0.0466 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.66% | 0.5585 | +180 |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 52.00% | 0.0141 | -125 |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 64.15% | 0.2252 | -110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.05% | 0.0610 | -140 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.36% | 0.2399 | +120 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.52% | 0.0085 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 63.97% | 0.5672 | +140 |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.48% | 0.0697 | +135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 55.01% | 0.0287 | -115 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 61.38% | 0.0497 | -140 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.95% | 0.1080 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 54.12% | 0.3800 | +155 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 65.61% | 0.2795 | -105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 50.90% |
| Texas Rangers vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 51.05% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia Phillies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 55.66% |
| Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees | Detroit Tigers | 52.00% |
| New York Mets vs Toronto Blue Jays | New York Mets | 64.15% |
| Washington Nationals vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 62.05% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta Braves | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.36% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City Royals | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee Brewers | Cincinnati Reds | 63.97% |
| San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 54.48% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Houston Astros | Minnesota Twins | 55.01% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 61.38% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics | Los Angeles Dodgers | 71.95% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 54.12% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 65.61% |
Bayesball Picks 
Leave a comment