My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Pittsburgh Pirates ML +100, 6.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML +125, 10.5%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 7.5%
- San Francisco Giants ML +100, 8.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML -105, 5.5%
- Miami Marlins ML +110, 5.5%
- Washington Nationals ML -120, 18.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +125, 6.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 58.08% | 0.0628 | -120 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.39% | 0.1279 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.03% | 0.2606 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 53.72% | 0.1819 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Los Angeles Dodgers | 49.19% | 0.0576 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.94% | 0.0129 | -145 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 58.68% | 0.1618 | +100 |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | New York Mets | 39.00% | 0.0531 | +170 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 56.68% | 0.1053 | -105 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Chicago White Sox | 43.73% | 0.0715 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | 53.47% | 0.1229 | +110 |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Washington Nationals | 71.33% | 0.3054 | -120 |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Athletics | 45.35% | 0.0885 | +140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | 51.64% | 0.1619 | +125 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | St. Louis Cardinals | 53.78% | 0.0756 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Minnesota Twins vs Cleveland Guardians | Minnesota Twins | 58.08% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs New York Yankees | Pittsburgh Pirates | 56.39% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.03% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 53.72% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.81% |
| San Diego Padres vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 59.94% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Kansas City Royals | San Francisco Giants | 58.68% |
| New York Mets vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 61.00% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago Cubs | Detroit Tigers | 56.68% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 56.27% |
| Miami Marlins vs Houston Astros | Miami Marlins | 53.47% |
| Washington Nationals vs Colorado Rockies | Washington Nationals | 71.33% |
| Athletics vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.65% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Seattle Mariners | Cincinnati Reds | 51.64% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Angels | St. Louis Cardinals | 53.78% |
Bayesball Picks 
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