Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Pittsburgh Pirates ML +105, 9.5%
• New York Mets ML +140, 7%
• St. Louis Cardinals ML +100, 11%
• Boston Red Sox ML -115, 17%
• Texas Rangers ML -105, 7.5%
• San Francisco Giants ML +115, 9.5%
• Los Angeles Dodgers ML -115, 12%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +155, 4%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.74%	0.2041	+105
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Minnesota Twins	48.69%	0.0956	+125
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	54.72%	0.0835	+100
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	53.81%	0.0063	-115
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	50.12%	0.2028	+140
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Baltimore Orioles	52.97%	0.0116	-110
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	55.30%	0.0784	-105
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	61.20%	0.2240	+100
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.07%	0.2917	-115
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	58.36%	0.1381	-105
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Miami Marlins	49.15%	0.0322	+110
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians*	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.46%	N/A	N/A
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	56.64%	0.2177	+115
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	64.80%	0.2117	-115
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	53.02%	0.0870	+105
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	44.45%	0.1291	+155

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians	Pittsburgh Pirates	58.74%
Minnesota Twins vs Chicago Cubs	Chicago Cubs	51.31%
Chicago White Sox vs Toronto Blue Jays	Toronto Blue Jays	54.72%
Cincinnati Reds vs Colorado Rockies	Cincinnati Reds	53.81%
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies	New York Mets	50.12%
Baltimore Orioles vs Houston Astros	Baltimore Orioles	52.97%
San Diego Padres vs Kansas City Royals	Kansas City Royals	55.30%
St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks	St. Louis Cardinals	61.20%
Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox	Boston Red Sox	69.07%
Texas Rangers vs Atlanta Braves	Texas Rangers	58.36%
Miami Marlins vs Milwaukee Brewers	Milwaukee Brewers	50.85%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians*	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.46%
San Francisco Giants vs Seattle Mariners	San Francisco Giants	56.64%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees	Los Angeles Dodgers	64.80%
Washington Nationals vs Athletics	Washington Nationals	53.02%
Detroit Tigers vs Los Angeles Angels	Detroit Tigers	55.55%

*Missing starting pitcher