My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Kansas City Royals ML +125, 18%
- Washington Nationals ML -115, 20%
- Cincinnati Reds ML +110, 5.5%
- Tampa Bay Rays ML -145, 9%
- Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 6.5%
- Los Angeles Angels ML +115, 15%
- Atlanta Braves ML +115, 6%
- Colorado Rockies ML +120, 7%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +180, 12%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -135, 17%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.39% | 0.0536 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | 64.34% | 0.4477 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 72.00% | 0.3464 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.45% | 0.1225 | +110 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 53.60% | 0.0238 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.33% | 0.1210 | -145 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.55% | 0.1456 | +110 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 54.12% | 0.0121 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels | 62.69% | 0.3479 | +115 |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Athletics | 52.15% | 0.0326 | +100 |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 52.69% | 0.1327 | +115 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 45.88% | 0.0221 | +120 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 53.54% | 0.1672 | +120 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.95% | 0.4265 | +180 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 72.01% | 0.2531 | -135 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 51.39% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Kansas City Royals | 64.34% |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 72.00% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 53.45% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 53.60% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 66.33% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Philadelphia Phillies | 54.55% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 54.12% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Los Angeles Angels | 62.69% |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Athletics | 52.15% |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 52.69% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.12% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 53.54% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.95% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 72.01% |
Bayesball Picks 
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