Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Tampa Bay Rays ML -160, 8.5%
• Baltimore Orioles ML -130, 10%
• Minnesota Twins ML +110, 8.5%
• Boston Red Sox ML +100, 15%
• Detroit Tigers ML -140, 12.5%
• Miami Marlins ML +125, 4.5%
• Los Angeles Angels ML +120, 7%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Higher EV Team	Probability	EV	Odds
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.18%	0.0836	+100
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	58.05%	-0.0189	-145
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	68.36%	0.1074	-160
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	65.26%	0.1551	-130
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	56.41%	0.1846	+110
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	65.36%	0.2940	+100
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	68.85%	0.1774	-140
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	49.42%	0.1121	+125
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	63.82%	0.0275	-165
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	62.45%	0.0679	-140
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	53.08%	0.1677	+120
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	53.73%	-0.0489	-130
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants*	Colorado Rockies	47.87%	0.0435	+120

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Pittsburgh Pirates	54.18%
Kansas City Royals vs New York Mets	New York Mets	58.05%
New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays*	Tampa Bay Rays	68.36%
Chicago Cubs vs Baltimore Orioles	Baltimore Orioles	65.26%
Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	56.41%
Boston Red Sox vs Chicago White Sox	Boston Red Sox	65.36%
Athletics vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	68.85%
Seattle Mariners vs Miami Marlins	Seattle Mariners	50.58%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Cincinnati Reds	Philadelphia Phillies	63.82%
Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals	Milwaukee Brewers	62.45%
Los Angeles Angels vs Texas Rangers	Los Angeles Angels	53.08%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	53.73%
Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants*	San Francisco Giants	52.13%

*Missing starting pitcher