My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Milwaukee Brewers ML +105, 5%
- Washington Nationals ML +165, 16.5%
- Boston Red Sox ML +125, 14.5%
- Seattle Mariners ML -105, 5.5%
- Detroit Tigers ML +120, 8%
- Houston Astros ML +100, 7.5%
- Cincinnati Reds ML -115, 11.5%
- Atlanta Braves ML -110, 6.5%
- Toronto Blue Jays ML -110, 11%
- Arizona Diamondbacks ML +225, 10.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% | 0.1071 | +105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 69.63% | 0.0862 | -180 |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.42% | 0.0335 | -125 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.37% | N/A | N/A |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | Colorado Rockies | 44.64% | 0.0044 | +125 |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.99% | 0.5369 | +165 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 60.29% | 0.3565 | +125 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 56.57% | 0.1031 | -105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Cleveland Guardians | 46.24% | 0.0404 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.57% | 0.1897 | +120 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% | -0.0123 | -155 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 57.36% | 0.1472 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.24% | 0.2013 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 58.65% | 0.1202 | -110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.59% | 0.1956 | -110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.02% | 0.4631 | +225 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.00% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 69.63% |
| Athletics vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 57.42% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.37% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 55.36% |
| New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.99% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets | Boston Red Sox | 60.29% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Tampa Bay Rays | Seattle Mariners | 56.57% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 53.76% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 54.57% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 59.86% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Houston Astros | 57.36% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 64.24% |
| Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals | Atlanta Braves | 58.65% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs San Diego Padres | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.59% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 54.98% |
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