Great 67 day and end of week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +1.71u
ROI: 24.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 44/92
Sportsbook favorites won: 44/92
Picks won: 21/46
Net Units: +1.76u
ROI: 3.83%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.54% | 0.1878 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.24% | 0.0242 | -175 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 47.25% | 0.1340 | +140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 46.46% | 0.0129 | +120 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 53.44% | -0.0113 | -115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.67% | -0.0256 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 59.40% | 0.1584 | -105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 57.93% | 0.0833 | -115 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.23% | 0.0306 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 49.04% | 0.0788 | +120 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.56% | 0.0184 | -190 |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 58.31% | 0.2245 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 40.40% | 0.1313 | +180 |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 59.44% | 0.1353 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 54.64% | 0.1202 | +105 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 50.54% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 65.24% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 52.75% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.54% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 53.44% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.67% |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 59.40% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 57.93% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 59.23% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 50.96% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.56% |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 58.31% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.60% |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 59.44% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 54.64% |
Mets unfortunately choked. Red Sox moved to tmrw.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/14
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
Picks won: 3/8
Net Units: -1.15u
ROI: -14.37%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 34/77
Sportsbook favorites won: 34/77
Picks won: 17/39
Net Units: +0.05u
ROI: 0.13%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 48.90% | 0.0512 | +115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 50.06% | 0.1763 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.09% | 0.0679 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 46.97% | 0.0568 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 54.84% | 0.0967 | +100 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 58.56% | 0.2590 | +115 |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 52.24% | 0.2276 | +135 |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 61.82% | 0.2055 | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.64% | 0.2006 | +100 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.18% | -0.0337 | -145 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.43% | -0.0404 | -120 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 56.56% | 0.1878 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.27% | 0.1468 | +240 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Angels | 35.22% | 0.3382 | +280 |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 66.72% | 0.2010 | -125 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 51.10% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 50.06% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.09% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 53.03% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 54.84% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 58.56% |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 52.24% |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 61.82% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.64% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 57.18% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.43% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 56.56% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 66.27% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 64.78% |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 66.72% |
Really solid day. Needed something like this.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 5/8
Net Units: +2.64u
ROI: 33.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 27/63
Sportsbook favorites won: 27/63
Picks won: 14/31
Net Units: +1.20u
ROI: 3.87%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% | 0.2500 | +150 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 55.08% | 0.0080 | -120 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 50.75% | 0.2891 | +155 |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 55.00% | 0.2374 | +125 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 47.78% | 0.0751 | +125 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.48% | 0.1573 | -145 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.91% | 0.1680 | +125 |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Athletics | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 44.91% | 0.0105 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% | 0.0529 | -135 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 58.37% | 0.1382 | -105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 44.06% | -0.0087 | +125 |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 55.88% | 0.1735 | +110 |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 57.33% | 0.2040 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Los Angeles Angels | 38.49% | 0.0201 | +165 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| San Francisco Giants vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Detroit Tigers | Seattle Mariners | 55.08% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Philadelphia Phillies | Chicago White Sox | 50.75% |
| Boston Red Sox vs New York Yankees | Boston Red Sox | 55.00% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 52.22% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Miami Marlins | Tampa Bay Rays | 68.48% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Atlanta Braves | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.91% |
| Athletics vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 50.00% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 55.09% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Texas Rangers | Cleveland Guardians | 60.51% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Kansas City Royals | 58.37% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Colorado Rockies | Milwaukee Brewers | 55.94% |
| Washington Nationals vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Washington Nationals | 55.88% |
| New York Mets vs San Diego Padres | New York Mets | 57.33% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Los Angeles Dodgers* | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.51% |
*Missing Angels starting pitcher
As genuinely made me wanna break something.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: +0.34u
ROI: 6.80%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 19/48
Sportsbook favorites won: 20/48
Picks won: 9/23
Net Units: -1.44u
ROI: -6.26%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.92% | 0.0238 | -190 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 50.00% | -0.0250 | -105 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | 45.45% | 0.0909 | +140 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 45.72% | 0.1614 | +155 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves* | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.04% | 0.2890 | +180 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.62% | -0.0128 | -105 |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Athletics | 60.08% | 0.2618 | +110 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 66.46% | 0.2693 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 44.49% | -0.0213 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 66.92% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 50.00% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 54.55% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.28% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves* | Atlanta Braves | 53.96% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 50.62% |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Athletics | 60.08% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 66.46% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 55.51% |
*Missing Blue Jays starting pitcher
Not the greatest day but the As did clutch.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 6/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 5/15
Picks won: 3/7
Net Units: -0.45u
ROI: -6.43%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 16/39
Sportsbook favorites won: 16/39
Picks won: 7/18
Net Units: -1.78u
ROI: -9.89%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.94% | 0.1067 | -110 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 44.68% | 0.0500 | +135 |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.22% | 0.0037 | -220 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 52.01% | 0.1701 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 60.60% | -0.0243 | -165 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Kansas City Royals | 42.69% | -0.0395 | +125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.42% | 0.1569 | +125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers* | San Francisco Giants | 44.28% | -0.0037 | +125 |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 56.48% | 0.1013 | -105 |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Athletics | 59.97% | 0.2294 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.37% | 0.0291 | -155 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 65.71% | 0.0645 | -160 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.01% | -0.0359 | =190 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.94% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 50.00% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 55.32% |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | Philadelphia Phillies | 69.22% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 52.01% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 60.60% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 57.31% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.42% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers* | Milwaukee Brewers | 55.72% |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 56.48% |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Athletics | 59.97% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.37% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 65.71% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.01% |
*Missing Brewers starting pitcher
Bayesball Picks 