Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 7/2/26 Recap

      Can’t have a good week without a day nuking all the progress.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 3/9
      Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9
      Picks won: 0/3
      Net Units: -3.00u
      ROI: -100.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 28/51
      Sportsbook favorites won: 29/51
      Picks won: 13/25
      Net Units: +0.21u
      ROI: 0.84%

    • 7/2/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Kansas City Royals ML +105
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +180, 14%
      • San Diego Padres ML +165, 8.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates47.70%0.0018+110
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers71.30%0.0909-190
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins59.31%0.0023-145
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox55.35%0.0573-110
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals54.37%0.0385-110
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals53.59%0.0985+105
      Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers54.10%0.0116-115
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels53.47%0.4971+180
      San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers48.60%0.2878+165

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies52.30%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers71.30%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins59.31%
      Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox55.35%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals54.37%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals53.59%
      Detroit Tigers vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers54.10%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels53.47%
      San Diego Padres vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers51.40%

    • 7/1/26 Recap

      Pretty solid day.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 7/14
      Sportsbook favorites won: 7/14
      Picks won: 5/8
      Net Units: +1.24u
      ROI: 15.50%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 25/42
      Sportsbook favorites won: 25/42
      Picks won: 13/22
      Net Units: +3.21u
      ROI: 14.59%

    • 7/1/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 8%
      • Detroit Tigers ML +120, 8%
      • Chicago Cubs ML -125, 8.5%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +115, 5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +110, 7%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -135, 11.5%
      • Milwaukee Brewers ML -165, 15.5%
      • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -170, 13%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles63.82%0.0913-140
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians59.74%0.1410-110
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals48.42%0.0651+120
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers54.62%0.1907+120
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs62.92%0.1326-125
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays49.27%-0.0392-105
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates51.96%0.1172+115
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals54.82%0.1512+110
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays67.26%0.1704-135
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins49.58%0.0412+110
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers73.76%0.1875-165
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins62.23%0.0018-165
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics*Los Angeles Dodgers72.41%0.1513-170
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants53.04%0.0608+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore Orioles*Baltimore Orioles63.82%
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians59.74%
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox51.58%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers54.62%
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs62.92%
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets50.73%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates51.96%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals54.82%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays67.26%
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros50.42%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers73.76%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins62.23%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Athletics*Los Angeles Dodgers72.41%
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants53.04%

      *Missing starting pitchers

    • 6/30/26 Recap

      The Giants stink.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 8/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 10/15
      Picks won: 4/8
      Net Units: -0.10u
      ROI: -1.25%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 18/28
      Sportsbook favorites won: 18/28
      Picks won: 8/14
      Net Units: +1.97u
      ROI: 14.07%

    • 6/30/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Chicago White Sox ML +125, 4%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +180, 15.5%
      • New York Mets ML -110, 12.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML +120, 10%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML +140, 19.5%
      • Los Angeles Dodgers ML -185, 10%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +155, 12.5%
      • San Francisco Giants ML -105, 14.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox49.10%0.1047+125
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.05%0.0466+105
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates55.66%0.5585+180
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers52.00%0.0141-125
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets64.15%0.2252-110
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox62.05%0.0610-140
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals56.36%0.2399+120
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays54.52%0.0085-115
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds63.97%0.5672+140
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs54.48%0.0697+135
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins55.01%0.0287-115
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins61.38%0.0497-140
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers71.95%0.1080-185
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels54.12%0.3800+155
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants65.61%0.2795-105

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles50.90%
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians51.05%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates55.66%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers52.00%
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets64.15%
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox62.05%
      St. Louis Cardinals vs Atlanta BravesSt. Louis Cardinals56.36%
      Tampa Bay Rays vs Kansas City RoyalsTampa Bay Rays54.52%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersCincinnati Reds63.97%
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs54.48%
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosMinnesota Twins55.01%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins61.38%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers71.95%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels54.12%
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants65.61%

    • 6/29/26 Recap

      Pretty good as far as Mondays go.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.07u
      ROI: 34.50%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 10/13
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/13
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.07u
      ROI: 34.50%

    • 6/29/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML -110, 12%
      • Detroit Tigers ML +110, 20%
      • New York Mets ML +105, 11.5%
      • Texas Rangers ML +135, 7.5%
      • Milwaukee Brewers ML -140, 16.5%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML +170, 12.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox50.72%0.0905+115
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates64.01%0.2226-110
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers68.42%0.4369+110
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets60.40%0.2382+105
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxWashington Nationals39.49%-0.0324+145
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers51.20%0.2033+135
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers72.15%0.2337-140
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.58%0.0559-165
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros61.03%0.0620-135
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins60.53%-0.0012-155
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers53.25%-0.0042-115
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels52.67%0.4222+170
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksSan Francisco Giants46.36%-0.0034+115

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Chicago White Sox vs Baltimore OriolesChicago White Sox50.72%
      Pittsburgh Pirates vs Philadelphia PhilliesPittsburgh Pirates64.01%
      Detroit Tigers vs New York YankeesDetroit Tigers68.42%
      New York Mets vs Toronto Blue JaysNew York Mets60.40%
      Washington Nationals vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox60.51%
      Texas Rangers vs Cleveland GuardiansTexas Rangers51.20%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers72.15%
      San Diego Padres vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs65.58%
      Minnesota Twins vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros61.03%
      Miami Marlins vs Colorado RockiesMiami Marlins60.53%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs AthleticsLos Angeles Dodgers53.25%
      Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Angels52.67%
      San Francisco Giants vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks53.64%

    • 6/28/26 Recap

      Horrible week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 9/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
      Picks won: 4/6
      Net Units: +2.10u
      ROI: 35.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 44/96
      Sportsbook favorites won: 51/96
      Picks won: 19/48
      Net Units: -9.34u
      ROI: -19.46%

    • 6/28/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Texas Rangers ML +110, 8.5%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -190, 12.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +140, 19.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +120, 14%
      • Miami Marlins ML +105, 12%
      • San Francisco Giants ML +135, 8.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.23%-0.0174-190
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates50.21%0.0705+115
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.55%0.1875+110
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.37%0.0074+100
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.88%0.0101-110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays74.14%0.1344-190
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies59.91%-0.0115-155
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies64.31%0.5433+140
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals60.86%0.3268+120
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs40.52%-0.0073+145
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins60.95%0.2495+105
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels49.84%-0.0032+100
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.60%0.2360+135
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres48.43%0.0558+120
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.76%-0.0250+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.23%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates50.21%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers56.55%
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers50.37%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians52.88%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays74.14%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies59.91%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies64.31%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals60.86%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers59.48%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsMiami Marlins60.95%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsAthletics50.16%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.60%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers51.57%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox50.76%