Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    • 6/27/26 Recap

      Just another bad day for this week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 7/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
      Picks won: 3/8
      Net Units: -1.27u
      ROI: -15.88%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 35/81
      Sportsbook favorites won: 43/81
      Picks won: 15/42
      Net Units: -11.44u
      ROI: -27.24%

    • 6/27/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Texas Rangers ML +155, 7%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML -120, 14.5%
      • Philadelphia Phillies ML +110, 10%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +105, 15.5%
      • Arizona Diamondbacks ML +120, 21.5%
      • Chicago Cubs ML +135, 6.5%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML -145, 10%
      • San Diego Padres ML +165, 6.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.71%-0.0132-135
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.21%0.0375-105
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers47.81%0.2190+155
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds67.64%0.2377-120
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies58.23%0.2228+110
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals64.43%0.3207+105
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysArizona Diamondbacks69.17%0.5080+120
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals53.00%0.0494+100
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners63.53%0.0610-150
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies46.31%0.0095+120
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs49.78%0.1697+135
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.30%0.1373-145
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres46.02%0.2196+165
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants59.06%0.0277-135
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.59%0.0208-115

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.71%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox53.21%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays52.19%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesCincinnati Reds67.64%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies58.23%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals64.43%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysArizona Diamondbacks69.17%
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals53.00%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners63.53%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins53.69%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers50.22%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals67.30%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers53.98%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants59.06%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.59%

    • 6/26/26 Recap

      It’s been an awful day and an awful week.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 6/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
      Picks won: 2/8
      Net Units: -4.34u
      ROI: -54.25%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 28/66
      Sportsbook favorites won: 36/66
      Picks won: 12/34
      Net Units: -10.17u
      ROI: -29.91%

    • 6/26/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Washington Nationals ML +115, 14%
      • Texas Rangers ML -105, 8.5%
      • Tampa Bay Rays ML -140, 9%
      • New York Yankees ML -110, 7.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +105, 17.5%
      • Chicago Cubs ML +200, 11.5%
      • Colorado Rockies ML +145, 12.5%
      • San Francisco Giants ML +100, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers54.15%0.0127-115
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.54%-0.0125-190
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals61.45%0.3212+115
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers59.58%0.1617-105
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners50.55%-0.0345-110
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays65.84%0.1258-140
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsNew York Mets43.35%0.0404+140
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees59.45%0.1355-110
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals66.68%0.3670+105
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersChicago Cubs48.49%0.4547+200
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies55.65%0.3633+145
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.84%0.0475-110
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.66%0.0659-105
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers57.12%-0.0347-145
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*San Francisco Giants55.58%0.1004+100

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers54.15%
      Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates64.54%
      Washington Nationals vs Baltimore OriolesWashington Nationals61.45%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers59.58%
      Seattle Mariners vs Cleveland GuardiansSeattle Mariners50.55%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays65.84%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs New York MetsPhiladelphia Phillies56.65%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees59.45%
      Kansas City Royals vs Chicago White SoxKansas City Royals66.68%
      Chicago Cubs vs Milwaukee BrewersMilwaukee Brewers51.51%
      Colorado Rockies vs Minnesota TwinsColorado Rockies55.65%
      Miami Marlins vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals54.84%
      Athletics vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels54.66%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego PadresLos Angeles Dodgers57.12%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Francisco Giants*San Francisco Giants55.58%

      *Missing Giants starting pitcher

    • 6/25/26 Recap

      Nats genuinely need to get rid of their bullpen and start over. The past 3 games have had genuinely atrocious closing pitching.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 2/8
      Sportsbook favorites won: 2/8
      Picks won: 2/4
      Net Units: +0.60u
      ROI: 15.00%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 22/51
      Sportsbook favorites won: 25/51
      Picks won: 10/26
      Net Units: -5.83u
      ROI: -22.42%

    • 6/25/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Kansas City Royals ML +120, 15%
      • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 4%
      • Washington Nationals ML +150, 4.5%
      • Boston Red Sox ML +135, 6%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals62.32%0.3585+120
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates48.99%0.1022+125
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants62.54%0.0882-135
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.02%0.0850-115
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals45.58%0.1394+150
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers46.08%0.0368+125
      Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsChicago Cubs49.28%-0.0391-105
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox49.66%0.1670+135
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.77%0.0575-135

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals62.32%
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners51.01%
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants62.54%
      Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.02%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies54.42%
      Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.92%
      Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsNew York Mets50.72%
      New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees50.34%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.77%

    • 6/24/26 Recap

      Another insane choke from the Nats.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 8/16
      Sportsbook favorites won: 9/16
      Picks won: 4/8
      Net Units: -0.29u
      ROI: -3.63%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 20/43
      Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43
      Picks won: 8/22
      Net Units: -6.43u
      ROI: -29.23%

    • 6/24/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7%
      • Los Angeles Angels ML -130, 11.5%
      • Seattle Mariners ML +100, 13.5%
      • Kansas City Royals ML +125, 12%
      • Washington Nationals ML +110, 11.5%
      • Houston Astros ML +140, 8%
      • Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 16.5%
      • Minnesota Twins ML +145, 5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbabilityEVOdds
      Texas Rangers vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins48.89%0.0022+105
      Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*New York Mets55.13%N/AN/A
      Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians60.47%0.1187-115
      Boston Red Sox vs Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox66.27%0.0405-175
      Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels66.33%0.1740-130
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners63.95%0.2662+100
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals57.96%0.3041+125
      New York Yankees vs Detroit TigersNew York Yankees43.99%-0.0322+120
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals59.78%0.2553+110
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros50.97%0.2232+140
      Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*Chicago Cubs66.97%N/AN/A
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers72.73%0.2291-145
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins46.54%0.1402+145
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsArizona Diamondbacks49.34%-0.0230+100
      Atlanta Braves vs San Diego PadresSan Diego Padres46.18%-0.0072+115
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.75%0.0814+105

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Texas Rangers vs Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers51.11%
      Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*New York Mets55.13%
      Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians60.47%
      Boston Red Sox vs Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox66.27%
      Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels66.33%
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners63.95%
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals57.96%
      New York Yankees vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.01%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals59.78%
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros50.97%
      Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*Chicago Cubs66.97%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsMilwaukee Brewers72.73%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota TwinsLos Angeles Dodgers53.46%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals50.66%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Diego PadresAtlanta Braves53.82%
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants52.75%

      *Missing Cubs starting pitchers

    • 6/23/26 Recap

      Just terrible luck today tbh. Nationals choking that hurt. Tons of rallies but no clutches for me though.

      Today’s Stats:

      Model favorites won: 7/15
      Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
      Picks won: 2/9
      Net Units: -4.84u
      ROI: -53.78%

      Weekly Stats:

      Model favorites won: 12/27
      Sportsbook favorites won: 14/27
      Picks won: 4/14
      Net Units: -6.14u
      ROI: -43.86%

    • 6/23/26 Baseball Picks

      My Picks
      % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

      • Kansas City Royals ML +155, 17.5%
      • Detroit Tigers ML +100, 16.5%
      • Washington Nationals ML +135, 4%
      • Cincinnati Reds ML +100, 9%
      • Minnesota Twins ML +145, 23%
      • Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7%
      • St. Louis Cardinals ML -110, 12%
      • Boston Red Sox ML -160, 9.5%
      • Athletics ML +105, 13.5%

      Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

      MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysHouston Astros48.09%0.0339+115
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates49.20%0.0087+105
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals60.42%0.5347+155
      Texas Rangers vs Miami MarlinsTexas Rangers44.37%-0.0016+125
      New York Yankees vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers66.75%0.3217+100
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals47.17%0.1084+135
      Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsChicago Cubs64.50%N/AN/A
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds59.18%0.1717+100
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.95%0.6648+145
      Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians60.10%0.1238-115
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.93%0.2211-110
      Boston Red Sox vs Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox69.02%0.1182-160
      Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles58.28%-0.0384-155
      Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres*San Diego Padres60.72%0.1597-110
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsAthletics62.50%0.2812+105

      My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

      MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
      Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.91%
      Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners50.80%
      Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals60.42%
      Texas Rangers vs Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins55.63%
      New York Yankees vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers66.75%
      Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies52.83%
      Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsChicago Cubs64.50%
      Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds59.18%
      Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota TwinsMinnesota Twins67.95%
      Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White SoxCleveland Guardians60.10%
      Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals63.93%
      Boston Red Sox vs Colorado RockiesBoston Red Sox69.02%
      Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles AngelsBaltimore Orioles58.28%
      Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres*San Diego Padres60.72%
      Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsAthletics62.50%

      *Missing Padres starting pitcher