Alright day. Guardians clutched.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/15
Picks won: 3/6
Net Units: +1.22u
ROI: 20.33%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/24
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/24
Picks won: 4/11
Net Units: -1.33u
ROI: -12.09%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% | 0.0335 | -155 |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | San Diego Padres | 56.11% | 0.2064 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.28% | -0.0319 | -145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 51.40% | 0.0177 | +100 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | Cleveland Guardians | 43.09% | 0.2926 | +200 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.90% | 0.0601 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.60% | 0.0835 | +110 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 63.96% | 0.1512 | -125 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 45.70% | 0.2339 | +170 |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 62.11% | 0.1615 | -115 |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Athletics | 49.09% | 0.0064 | +105 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.45% | 0.0032 | -105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Colorado Rockies | 60.77% | 0.4280 | +135 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.03% | 0.0462 | +105 |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners* | Seattle Mariners | 59.65% | 0.0081 | -145 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 62.64% |
| San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies | San Diego Padres | 56.11% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 57.28% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Miami Marlins | 51.40% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs New York Yankees | New York Yankees | 56.91% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 58.90% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves | Toronto Blue Jays | 51.60% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 63.96% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.30% |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 62.11% |
| Athletics vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.91% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Houston Astros | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.45% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Colorado Rockies | 60.77% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 51.03% |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners* | Seattle Mariners | 59.65% |
*Missing Mets starting pitcher
Pretty bad day.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.55u
ROI: -51.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 3/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/9
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.55u
ROI: -51.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | 53.23% | 0.3040 | +145 |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 67.80% | 0.1459 | -145 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Kansas City Royals | 40.63% | 0.0970 | +170 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 62.20% | 0.3560 | +120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | San Francisco Giants | 50.00% | 0.1750 | +135 |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.95% | -0.0375 | +105 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.47% | -0.0217 | -220 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 48.13% | 0.1310 | +135 |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | 57.64% | 0.2682 | +120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Tampa Bay Rays | Detroit Tigers | 53.23% |
| Miami Marlins vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 67.80% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Cincinnati Reds | Cincinnati Reds | 59.37% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Minnesota Twins | Chicago White Sox | 62.20% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 50.00% |
| Texas Rangers vs St. Louis Cardinals | Texas Rangers | 53.05% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Angels | Los Angeles Angels | 67.47% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Los Angeles Dodgers | 51.87% |
| New York Mets vs Seattle Mariners | New York Mets | 57.64% |
What a day for the model. Still not enough to save the week though.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 14/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 4/5
Net Units: +2.69u
ROI: 53.80%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 52/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 53/94
Picks won: 13/31
Net Units: -5.56u
ROI: -17.94%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.50% | -0.0236 | +110 |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.43% | 0.2086 | +100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.09% | -0.0003 | -165 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 60.83% | 0.1863 | -105 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.96% | -0.0385 | -210 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.34% | -0.0024 | -140 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 42.13% | -0.0099 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | 46.76% | -0.0180 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.53% | 0.0291 | -210 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.14% | 0.0341 | -110 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 65.15% | 0.2183 | -115 |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | Athletics | 42.75% | 0.0260 | +140 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Arizona Diamondbacks | 49.02% | 0.1029 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 42.70% | 0.2170 | +185 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.45% | 0.2613 | -115 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.50% |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 60.43% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 62.09% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 60.83% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 64.96% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.34% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 57.87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 53.24% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.53% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 54.14% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 65.15% |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 57.25% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.98% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 57.30% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 67.45% |
Pretty bad week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 1/5
Net Units: -2.95u
ROI: -59.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 38/79
Sportsbook favorites won: 42/79
Picks won: 9/26
Net Units: -8.25u
ROI: -31.73%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.91% | 0.0581 | +100 |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.54% | 0.1591 | +105 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.41% | -0.0386 | -125 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.31% | -0.0224 | -125 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.90% | -0.0045 | -145 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 47.09% | -0.0110 | +110 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.75% | 0.0646 | -150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 58.27% | 0.2237 | +110 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.16% | 0.0689 | -115 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.06% | 0.2613 | +125 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 59.98% | 0.0137 | -145 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.85% | 0.1125 | -130 |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | Athletics | 42.38% | -0.0465 | +125 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.1750 | +135 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.54% | 0.0613 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 52.91% |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 56.54% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 53.41% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 54.31% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.90% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 52.91% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.75% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 58.27% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.16% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 56.06% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 59.98% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.85% |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 57.62% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 50.54% |
Detroit Tigers loss was really stupid. So was the Diamondbacks one, but I had less expectations there.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 8/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 2/5
Net Units: -1.02u
ROI: -20.40%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/64
Sportsbook favorites won: 36/64
Picks won: 8/21
Net Units: -5.30u
ROI: -25.24%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.70% | -0.0314 | -155 |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 55.44% | 0.0588 | -110 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Minnesota Twins | 47.19% | 0.0146 | +115 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 55.26% | 0.0334 | -115 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 69.52% | 0.3904 | +100 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Los Angeles Angels | 43.69% | 0.0922 | +150 |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 51.26% | 0.0251 | +100 |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.20% | 0.1008 | +115 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | 61.59% | 0.1394 | -115 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Kansas City Royals | 47.04% | -0.0356 | +105 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.11% | 0.3012 | -120 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.40% | -0.0078 | -170 |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 58.47% | -0.0353 | -155 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Arizona Diamondbacks | 50.00% | 0.1250 | +125 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.90% | 0.0276 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Cincinnati Reds | Atlanta Braves | 58.70% |
| San Diego Padres vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 55.44% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 52.81% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 55.26% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Boston Red Sox | 69.52% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 56.31% |
| Miami Marlins vs New York Mets | Miami Marlins | 51.26% |
| Chicago Cubs vs St. Louis Cardinals | St. Louis Cardinals | 51.20% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Chicago White Sox | Detroit Tigers | 61.59% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 52.96% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Houston Astros | Milwaukee Brewers | 71.11% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Colorado Rockies | San Francisco Giants | 62.40% |
| New York Yankees vs Athletics | New York Yankees | 58.47% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 50.00% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 51.90% |
*Missing Blue Jays starting pitcher
Bayesball Picks 