Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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  • 9/23/25 Recap

    Really good day. Marlins and Cardinals came clutch. White Sox trolled pretty hard though. Ended up losing the game because of a wild pitch home base steal in the 9th inning.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 4/15
    Picks won: 4/7
    Net Units: +3.50u
    ROI: 50.00%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/18
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/18
    Picks won: 5/9
    Net Units: +3.75u
    ROI: 41.67%

  • 9/23/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Cleveland Guardians ML +135, 10%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +150, 7.5%
    • Miami Marlins ML +185, 10%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +205, 10%
    • Washington Nationals ML +170, 22.5%
    • Chicago Cubs ML -115, 7.5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +180, 7.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays53.25%-0.0041-115
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians54.27%0.2752+135
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsPittsburgh Pirates49.24%0.2311+150
    Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins 47.46%0.3525+185
    Chicago White Sox vs New York YankeesChicago White Sox45.63%0.3917+205
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysBoston Red Sox48.37%0.1125+130
    Washington Nationals vs Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals65.17%0.7596+170
    New York Mets vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.14%0.1246-115
    Minnesota Twins vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers58.14%-0.0291-150
    Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals67.14%0.0474-180
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks41.89%0.0263+145
    Colorado Rockies vs Seattle MarinersColorado Rockies31.52%0.1346+260
    Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers52.69%0.0065-110
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals46.35%0.2977+180
    Houston Astros vs AthleticsAthletics56.34%0.0761-110

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore OriolesTampa Bay Rays53.25%
    Detroit Tigers vs Cleveland GuardiansCleveland Guardians54.27%
    Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.76%
    Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia PhilliesPhiladelphia Phillies52.54%
    Chicago White Sox vs New York YankeesNew York Yankees54.37%
    Boston Red Sox vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays51.63%
    Washington Nationals vs Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals65.17%
    New York Mets vs Chicago CubsChicago Cubs60.14%
    Minnesota Twins vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers58.14%
    Kansas City Royals vs Los Angeles AngelsKansas City Royals67.14%
    Los Angeles Dodgers vs Arizona DiamondbacksLos Angeles Dodgers58.11%
    Colorado Rockies vs Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners68.48%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers52.69%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants53.65%
    Houston Astros vs AthleticsAthletics56.34%

  • 9/22/25 Recap

    Decent start to the last week of the regular season.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/3
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.25u
    ROI: 12.50%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 2/3
    Sportsbook favorites won: 2/3
    Picks won: 1/2
    Net Units: +0.25u
    ROI: 12.50%

  • 9/22/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Washington Nationals ML +220, 7.5%
    • St. Louis Cardinals ML +125, 15%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Washington Nationals vs Atlanta BravesWashington Nationals41.29%0.3212+220
    Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers53.04%0.0874+105
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals61.32%0.3797+125

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Washington Nationals vs Atlanta BravesAtlanta Braves58.71%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs San Diego PadresMilwaukee Brewers53.04%
    St. Louis Cardinals vs San Francisco GiantsSt. Louis Cardinals61.32%

  • 9/21/25 Recap

    Good day today for my picks but not really great for the model overall. Coming up on the last week of the regular season sadly.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 5/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
    Picks won: 3/6
    Net Units: +1.12u
    ROI: 18.67%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 51/96
    Sportsbook favorites won: 48/96
    Picks won: 16/31
    Net Units: +3.94u
    ROI: 12.71%

  • 9/21/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Baltimore Orioles ML +120, 7.5%
    • Washington Nationals ML +230, 7.5%
    • Toronto Blue Jays ML -115, 7.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +160, 12.5%
    • Colorado Rockies ML -105, 15%
    • Boston Red Sox ML -135, 12.5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates51.70%-0.0332-115
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.67%0.1808+120
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs50.00%-0.0450-110
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals41.92%0.3832+230
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.51%0.0172-125
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays60.43%0.1300-115
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians58.07%-0.0070-140
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox53.19%0.3830+160
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*St. Louis Cardinals49.31%0.0849+120
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersMiami Marlins49.20%0.0332+110
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies66.10%0.2890-105
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersSan Francisco Giants38.33%0.1117+190
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks46.27%-0.0052+115
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners59.87%0.0118-145
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox68.34%0.1890-135

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates51.70%
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles53.67%
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsCincinnati Reds50.00%
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNew York Mets58.08%
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers56.51%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays60.43%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians58.07%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox53.19%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals*Milwaukee Brewers50.69%
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers50.80%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies66.10%
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers61.67%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksPhiladelphia Phillies53.73%
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners59.87%
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysBoston Red Sox68.34%

    *Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams

  • 9/20/25 Recap

    Decent day today. Very small gain, but that could have gone a lot worse.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 8/16
    Sportsbook favorites won: 6/16
    Picks won: 2/4
    Net Units: +0.17u
    ROI: 4.25%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 46/81
    Sportsbook favorites won: 42/81
    Picks won: 13/25
    Net Units: +2.82u
    ROI: 11.28%

  • 9/20/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Miami Marlins ML +130, 7.5%
    • Baltimore Orioles ML +170, 7.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +145, 7.5%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -115, 5%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersAtlanta Braves48.95%0.0036+105
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians50.00%0.0000+100
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsWashington Nationals31.72%0.0309+225
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs51.27%-0.0412-115
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates*Athletics59.04%0.0805-120
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays51.98%-0.0487-120
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersMiami Marlins52.72%0.2125+130
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles45.01%0.2153+170
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians55.75%0.0649-110
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners50.00%-0.0250-105
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays57.09%-0.0466-150
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.92%0.2475+145
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers58.14%-0.0290-150
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies48.38%0.0160+110
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks58.63%0.0964-115
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers74.25%0.0395-250

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers51.05%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians50.00%
    Washington Nationals vs New York MetsNew York Mets68.28%
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs51.27%
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates*Athletics59.04%
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays51.98%
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersMiami Marlins52.72%
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesNew York Yankees54.99%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians55.75%
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosHouston Astros50.00%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays57.09%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.92%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsMilwaukee Brewers58.14%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado RockiesLos Angeles Angels51.62%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks58.63%
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers74.25%

    *Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams

  • 9/19/25 Recap

    Solid day today.

    Today’s Stats:

    Model favorites won: 7/15
    Sportsbook favorites won: 3/15
    Picks won: 3/5
    Net Units: +1.40u
    ROI: 28.20%

    Weekly Stats:

    Model favorites won: 38/65
    Sportsbook favorites won: 36/65
    Picks won: 11/21
    Net Units: +2.65u
    ROI: 12.62%

  • 9/19/25 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Baltimore Orioles ML +100, 15%
    • Tampa Bay Rays ML +120, 7.5%
    • Chicago White Sox ML +150, 7.5%
    • Cleveland Guardians ML -110, 10%
    • Arizona Diamondbacks ML -120, 10%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
    Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs55.43%-0.0356-135
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates*Pittsburgh Pirates51.54%-0.0156-110
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.12%-0.0079-125
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.64%0.2928+100
    Washington Nationals vs New York Mets*Washington Nationals38.76%0.0852+180
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays54.83%0.2062+120
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsKansas City Royals44.43%-0.0226+120
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%0.2500+150
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers68.10%0.0692-175
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies:Los Angeles Angels59.41%0.0338-135
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners54.53%0.0415-110
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians61.44%0.1736-110
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.19%0.0438+100
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks63.31%0.1586-120
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers59.84%0.0040+150

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati RedsChicago Cubs55.43%
    Athletics vs Pittsburgh Pirates*Pittsburgh Pirates51.54%
    Atlanta Braves vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers55.12%
    New York Yankees vs Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles64.64%
    Washington Nationals vs New York Mets*New York Mets61.24%
    Boston Red Sox vs Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays54.83%
    Toronto Blue Jays vs Kansas City RoyalsToronto Blue Jays55.57%
    San Diego Padres vs Chicago White SoxChicago White Sox50.00%
    Miami Marlins vs Texas RangersTexas Rangers68.10%
    Los Angeles Angels vs Colorado Rockies:Los Angeles Angels59.41%
    Seattle Mariners vs Houston AstrosSeattle Mariners54.53%
    Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians61.44%
    Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals52.19%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Arizona DiamondbacksArizona Diamondbacks63.31%
    San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles DodgersLos Angeles Dodgers59.84%

    *Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams