Bayesball Picks

Model-Based EV Picks

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    6/25/26 Baseball Picks

    My Picks
    % represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

    • Kansas City Royals ML +120, 15%
    • Pittsburgh Pirates ML +125, 4%
    • Washington Nationals ML +150, 4.5%
    • Boston Red Sox ML +135, 6%

    Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

    MatchupHigher EV TeamProbabilityEVOdds
    Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals62.32%0.3585+120
    Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates48.99%0.1022+125
    Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants62.54%0.0882-135
    Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.02%0.0850-115
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsWashington Nationals45.58%0.1394+150
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysTexas Rangers46.08%0.0368+125
    Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsChicago Cubs49.28%-0.0391-105
    New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox49.66%0.1670+135
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.77%0.0575-135

    My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

    MatchupPredicted WinnerProbability
    Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay RaysKansas City Royals62.32%
    Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh PiratesSeattle Mariners51.01%
    Athletics vs San Francisco GiantsSan Francisco Giants62.54%
    Houston Astros vs Detroit TigersDetroit Tigers58.02%
    Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington NationalsPhiladelphia Phillies54.42%
    Texas Rangers vs Toronto Blue JaysToronto Blue Jays53.92%
    Chicago Cubs vs New York MetsNew York Mets50.72%
    New York Yankees vs Boston Red SoxNew York Yankees50.34%
    Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals60.77%
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