Bayesball Picks

My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy

• Cleveland Guardians ML -115, 7%
• Los Angeles Angels ML -130, 11.5%
• Seattle Mariners ML +100, 13.5%
• Kansas City Royals ML +125, 12%
• Washington Nationals ML +110, 11.5%
• Houston Astros ML +140, 8%
• Milwaukee Brewers ML -145, 16.5%
• Minnesota Twins ML +145, 5%

Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability	EV	Odds
Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	Miami Marlins	48.89%	0.0022	+105
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*	New York Mets	55.13%	N/A	N/A
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians	60.47%	0.1187	-115
Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	Boston Red Sox	66.27%	0.0405	-175
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	66.33%	0.1740	-130
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Seattle Mariners	63.95%	0.2662	+100
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	57.96%	0.3041	+125
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	New York Yankees	43.99%	-0.0322	+120
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.78%	0.2553	+110
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros	50.97%	0.2232	+140
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*	Chicago Cubs	66.97%	N/A	N/A
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	Milwaukee Brewers	72.73%	0.2291	-145
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	Minnesota Twins	46.54%	0.1402	+145
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	Arizona Diamondbacks	49.34%	-0.0230	+100
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	San Diego Padres	46.18%	-0.0072	+115
Athletics vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	52.75%	0.0814	+105

My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:

Matchup	Predicted Winner	Probability
Texas Rangers vs Miami Marlins	Texas Rangers	51.11%
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*	New York Mets	55.13%
Cleveland Guardians vs Chicago White Sox	Cleveland Guardians	60.47%
Boston Red Sox vs Colorado Rockies	Boston Red Sox	66.27%
Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Angels	Los Angeles Angels	66.33%
Seattle Mariners vs Pittsburgh Pirates	Seattle Mariners	63.95%
Kansas City Royals vs Tampa Bay Rays	Kansas City Royals	57.96%
New York Yankees vs Detroit Tigers	Detroit Tigers	56.01%
Philadelphia Phillies vs Washington Nationals	Washington Nationals	59.78%
Houston Astros vs Toronto Blue Jays	Houston Astros	50.97%
Chicago Cubs vs New York Mets*	Chicago Cubs	66.97%
Milwaukee Brewers vs Cincinnati Reds	Milwaukee Brewers	72.73%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs Minnesota Twins	Los Angeles Dodgers	53.46%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs St. Louis Cardinals	St. Louis Cardinals	50.66%
Atlanta Braves vs San Diego Padres	Atlanta Braves	53.82%
Athletics vs San Francisco Giants	San Francisco Giants	52.75%

*Missing Cubs starting pitchers