Hitting a little bit of an unlucky streak unfortunately.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 1/6
Sportsbook favorites won: 2/6
Picks won: 0/2
Net Units: -2.00u
ROI: -100.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 23/49
Sportsbook favorites won: 25/49
Picks won: 6/16
Net Units: -4.28u
ROI: -26.75%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.74% | 0.1613 | -135 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.87% | 0.1852 | +120 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | 57.47% | -0.0287 | -145 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Toronto Blue Jays | 46.61% | -0.0211 | +110 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.50% | 0.0374 | -180 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.37% | 0.0249 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 66.74% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.87% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Atlanta Braves | 57.47% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 53.39% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 66.50% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.37% |
Accurate on everything except my picks somehow lmao.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 1/4
Net Units: -2.38u
ROI: -59.50%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 22/43
Sportsbook favorites won: 23/43
Picks won: 6/14
Net Units: -2.28u
ROI: -16.29%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Miami Marlins | 41.89% | -0.0155 | +135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 45.04% | 0.1486 | +155 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.44% | -0.0193 | -155 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 48.77% | 0.0241 | +110 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.93% | 0.0905 | +110 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 72.56% | 0.1755 | -160 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.78% | 0.1179 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.85% | 0.0076 | +105 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.37% | 0.1289 | -115 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 54.25% | 0.0850 | +100 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.66% | -0.0364 | -120 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.41% | -0.0027 | -125 |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | New York Yankees | 65.54% | 0.0946 | -150 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 64.19% | 0.0207 | -170 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 38.00% | 0.6151 | +325 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 58.11% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Cleveland Guardians | 54.96% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers* | Milwaukee Brewers | 59.44% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Seattle Mariners | 51.23% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.93% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 72.56% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 59.78% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 50.85% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 60.37% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 54.25% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 52.66% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 55.41% |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | New York Yankees | 65.54% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 64.19% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.00% |
*Missing starting pitchers
Solid day today. Covers yesterday’s loss.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/15
Picks won: 3/3
Net Units: +2.60u
ROI: 86.67%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/28
Sportsbook favorites won: 12/28
Picks won: 5/10
Net Units: +0.10u
ROI: 1.00%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 57.81% | 0.2428 | +115 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.91% | 0.0455 | -115 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 57.87% | -0.0105 | -140 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% | 0.2102 | -135 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 54.43% | 0.0614 | -105 |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 58.65% | -0.0087 | -145 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets* | New York Mets | 50.00% | 0.0000 | +100 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 54.23% | 0.0032 | -115 |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 37.57% | 0.0520 | +180 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 45.03% | 0.1032 | +145 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 66.71% | 0.1407 | -140 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 51.56% | 0.0312 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 48.28% | -0.0308 | +105 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.29% | 0.0152 | -115 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 36.78% | 0.1035 | +200 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 57.81% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 55.91% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 57.87% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 69.55% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 54.43% |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 58.65% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets* | New York Mets | 50.00% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 54.23% |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | New York Yankees | 62.43% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.97% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 66.71% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 51.56% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 52.72% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 54.29% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.22% |
*Missing Mets starting pitcher
Pretty awful start to the week but we still chilling cuz of last week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.50u
ROI: -35.71%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 4/13
Sportsbook favorites won: 4/13
Picks won: 2/7
Net Units: -2.50u
ROI: -35.71%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.59% | 0.2011 | +105 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 45.21% | -0.0279 | +115 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.10% | -0.0283 | -120 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 46.71% | 0.3079 | +180 |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.52% | 0.2268 | +125 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.03% | -0.0014 | -165 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | Arizona Diamondbacks | 45.90% | 0.0098 | +120 |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 55.96% | 0.3709 | +145 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 57.05% | 0.0098 | -130 |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 67.34% | 0.1716 | -135 |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.86% | -0.0165 | -170 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Colorado Rockies | 34.66% | 0.2477 | +260 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.12% | 0.1309 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 58.59% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Baltimore Orioles | Tampa Bay Rays | 54.79% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Chicago White Sox | Minnesota Twins | 53.10% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 53.29% |
| New York Yankees vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 62.03% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 54.10% |
| Washington Nationals vs Cleveland Guardians | Washington Nationals | 55.96% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Diego Padres | Philadelphia Phillies | 57.05% |
| Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 67.34% |
| Miami Marlins vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 61.86% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 65.34% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Athletics | Athletics | 57.12% |
Insanely good day to end an insanely good week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 6/15
Picks won: 5/6
Net Units: +5.63u
ROI: 93.83%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/94
Sportsbook favorites won: 49/94
Picks won: 22/32
Net Units: +15.32u
ROI: 48.86%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.65% | 0.2139 | +135 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles* | Detroit Tigers | 48.08% | -0.0143 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Minnesota Twins | 43.90% | -0.0122 | +125 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians | 61.17% | 0.0643 | -135 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.63% | 0.3362 | +110 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 53.28% | 0.0656 | +100 |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 62.55% | 0.2384 | +100 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 46.30% | 0.0094 | +120 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.18% | -0.0270 | -185 |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Houston Astros | 50.00% | 0.2500 | +150 |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.65% | -0.0135 | -110 |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Colorado Rockies | 41.79% | 0.1074 | +165 |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 62.56% | 0.5013 | +140 |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.87% | 0.2689 | +140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 57.90% | 0.0421 | -125 |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers | 54.70% | 0.0940 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Toronto Blue Jays | Pittsburgh Pirates | 51.65% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 51.92% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 56.10% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Philadelphia Phillies | Cleveland Guardians | 61.17% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs New York Yankees | Tampa Bay Rays | 63.63% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Cincinnati Reds | St. Louis Cardinals | 53.28% |
| New York Mets vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 62.55% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 53.70% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.18% |
| Houston Astros vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 50.00% |
| Chicago White Sox vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco Giants | 51.65% |
| Colorado Rockies vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 58.21% |
| Athletics vs San Diego Padres | Athletics | 62.56% |
| Washington Nationals vs Atlanta Braves | Washington Nationals | 52.87% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Baltimore Orioles* | Baltimore Orioles | 57.90% |
| Texas Rangers vs Los Angeles Angels | Texas Rangers | 54.70% |
*Doubleheader
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