Decent day today. Padres really let themselves go though. Also, funnily enough, it’s like my fourth day in a row going 2/4 on picks.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 7/10
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/10
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +1.00u
ROI: 25.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 31/50
Sportsbook favorites won: 33/50
Picks won: 8/16
Net Units: +1.25u
ROI: 7.81%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 47.05% | 0.2469 | +165 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 67.69% | 0.4892 | +120 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.78% | -0.0319 | -125 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 50.66% | 0.1905 | +135 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 58.40% | 0.0686 | -120 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 42.14% | 0.0325 | +145 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds* | Chicago Cubs | 44.69% | -0.0391 | +115 |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | Baltimore Orioles | 38.47% | 0.0194 | +165 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 45.41% | 0.2032 | +165 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.06% | 0.0054 | -160 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.95% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 67.69% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 53.78% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Athletics | 50.66% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 58.40% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 57.86% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Cincinnati Reds* | Cincinnati Reds | 55.31% |
| New York Yankees vs Baltimore Orioles | New York Yankees | 61.53% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 54.59% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 62.06% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Should’ve been a better day consider my model overall did well. Funnily enough, net units are the same as yesterday.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 10/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 11/15
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +0.40u
ROI: 10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 24/40
Sportsbook favorites won: 26/40
Picks won: 6/12
Net Units: +0.25u
ROI: 2.08%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.52% | 0.3084 | +140 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 55.99% | 0.0247 | -120 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 49.25% | 0.0096 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.38% | 0.0769 | -110 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 68.92% | 0.6197 | +135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.00% | 0.2421 | +130 |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.20% | 0.0380 | -200 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.31% | 0.1247 | +115 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.75% | -0.0115 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 50.75% | -0.0306 | -110 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 63.02% | -0.0295 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 42.13% | 0.1585 | +175 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 58.92% | 0.0252 | -135 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 65.61% | 0.0432 | -170 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.00% | 0.0520 | -150 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 54.52% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 55.99% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 50.75% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 56.38% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 68.92% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.00% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.20% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 52.31% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 51.75% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 50.75% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 63.02% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 57.87% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Texas Rangers | 58.92% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 65.61% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 63.00% |
Pretty mid day today. Rockies almost came back at the end, which I wanted so bad.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 9/16
Sportsbook favorites won: 8/16
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: +0.40u
ROI: 10.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 14/25
Sportsbook favorites won: 15/25
Picks won: 4/8
Net Units: -0.15u
ROI: -1.88%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Washington Nationals | 45.79% | 0.0074 | +120 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% | 0.2493 | +130 |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% | 0.0241 | -130 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% | N/A | N/A |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% | 0.1280 | -170 |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% | 0.0232 | -110 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Tampa Bay Rays | 50.00% | -0.0450 | -110 |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Kansas City Royals | 44.48% | -0.0437 | +115 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 48.01% | -0.0398 | +100 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% | 0.0582 | -185 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Los Angeles Angels | 30.74% | 0.0144 | +230 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% | -0.0476 | -120 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% | 0.2676 | +110 |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Colorado Rockies | 50.00% | 0.1500 | +130 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% | 0.0862 | +100 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Philadelphia Phillies | 49.49% | -0.0102 | +100 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 54.21% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Detroit Tigers | Cleveland Guardians | 54.32% |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 57.86% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals* | Atlanta Braves | 57.05% |
| Athletics vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 70.94% |
| San Diego Padres vs New York Mets | San Diego Padres | 53.57% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 50.00% |
| Seattle Mariners vs Kansas City Royals | Seattle Mariners | 55.52% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 51.99% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 68.71% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 69.26% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 52.05% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 60.36% |
| Miami Marlins vs Colorado Rockies | Miami Marlins | 50.00% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | San Francisco Giants | 54.31% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 50.51% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Slightly bad day today.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: -0.55u
ROI: -13.75%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 5/9
Sportsbook favorites won: 7/9
Picks won: 2/4
Net Units: -0.55u
ROI: -13.75%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% | 0.2134 | +105 |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% | 0.3776 | +140 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% | 0.0604 | -140 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Chicago White Sox | 46.04% | 0.0130 | +120 |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | Minnesota Twins | 40.91% | 0.1045 | +170 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% | 0.0426 | -110 |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% | 0.1254 | -135 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% | 0.2217 | -140 |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% | 0.0424 | -120 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago Cubs vs Pittsburgh Pirates | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.19% |
| Atlanta Braves vs Washington Nationals | Washington Nationals | 57.40% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Tampa Bay Rays | Toronto Blue Jays | 62.01% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Chicago White Sox | Baltimore Orioles | 53.96% |
| New York Yankees vs Minnesota Twins | New York Yankees | 59.09% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs St. Louis Cardinals | Cincinnati Reds | 54.59% |
| Texas Rangers vs Houston Astros | Houston Astros | 64.68% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Arizona Diamondbacks | 71.44% |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 56.96% |
Solid day to end the horrible week.
Today’s Stats:
Model favorites won: 11/15
Sportsbook favorites won: 9/15
Picks won: 4/7
Net Units: +0.98u
ROI: 14.00%
Weekly Stats:
Model favorites won: 51/80
Sportsbook favorites won: 56/65
Picks won: 17/40
Net Units: -5.29u
ROI: -13.23%
My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
Odds used are Fliff Odds. Your sportsbook’s odds may differ.
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.84% | 0.1429 | -110 |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 65.10% | 0.5625 | +140 |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 64.88% | 0.0965 | -145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Baltimore Orioles | 42.61% | 0.0652 | +150 |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | Texas Rangers | 46.51% | 0.0930 | +135 |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 57.54% | 0.3809 | +140 |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins* | Detroit Tigers | 63.55% | 0.0740 | -145 |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.07% | 0.3340 | +105 |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | St. Louis Cardinals | 43.41% | 0.0852 | +150 |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Tampa Bay Rays | 41.50% | -0.0246 | +135 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.41% | 0.1920 | -110 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.51% | 0.0519 | -140 |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | Colorado Rockies | 36.14% | 0.3553 | +275 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Los Angeles Angels | 36.63% | 0.0624 | +190 |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.32% | 0.1230 | -160 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Washington Nationals | Pittsburgh Pirates | 59.84% |
| Kansas City Royals vs Philadelphia Phillies | Kansas City Royals | 65.10% |
| Houston Astros vs Atlanta Braves | Houston Astros | 64.88% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays | Toronto Blue Jays | 57.39% |
| Texas Rangers vs New York Mets | New York Mets | 53.49% |
| Chicago White Sox vs Cleveland Guardians | Chicago White Sox | 57.54% |
| Detroit Tigers vs Miami Marlins* | Detroit Tigers | 63.55% |
| Arizona Diamondbacks vs Minnesota Twins | Arizona Diamondbacks | 65.07% |
| St. Louis Cardinals vs Milwaukee Brewers | Milwaukee Brewers | 56.59% |
| Tampa Bay Rays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 58.50% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs Athletics | Athletics | 62.41% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants | Los Angeles Dodgers | 61.51% |
| Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres | San Diego Padres | 63.86% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 63.37% |
| New York Yankees vs Boston Red Sox | Boston Red Sox | 69.32% |
*Missing starting pitcher information from one or both teams
Bayesball Picks 