My Picks
% represents the amount of bankroll to bet based on a Half-Kelly Criterion betting strategy
- Cincinnati Reds ML +165, 12.5%
- Washington Nationals ML +105, 8%
- Cleveland Guardians ML +120, 13.5%
- New York Mets ML +155, 14%
- Baltimore Orioles ML +195, 5%
- Minnesota Twins ML +110, 4.5%
Comparison to Sportsbook Odds (Edges and EV):
| Matchup | Higher EV Team | Probability | EV | Odds |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Chicago White Sox | 47.46% | -0.0271 | +105 |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.57% | 0.4197 | +165 |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.98% | -0.0260 | -135 |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.54% | 0.0708 | -135 |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 56.84% | 0.1651 | +105 |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.53% | 0.0008 | -140 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.11% | -0.0411 | -135 |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.32% | 0.3271 | +120 |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.42% | 0.4387 | +155 |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.21% | 0.0835 | -210 |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Los Angeles Angels | 44.27% | 0.0845 | +145 |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Baltimore Orioles | 40.60% | 0.1976 | +195 |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.46% | -0.0254 | +105 |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 52.58% | 0.1042 | +110 |
My Model’s Predicted Winner + Win Probability:
| Matchup | Predicted Winner | Probability |
| Chicago White Sox vs Detroit Tigers | Detroit Tigers | 52.54% |
| Cincinnati Reds vs New York Yankees | Cincinnati Reds | 53.57% |
| Toronto Blue Jays vs Chicago Cubs | Chicago Cubs | 55.98% |
| San Diego Padres vs Texas Rangers | Texas Rangers | 61.54% |
| Washington Nationals vs Tampa Bay Rays | Washington Nationals | 56.84% |
| San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins | Miami Marlins | 58.53% |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs Atlanta Braves | Atlanta Braves | 55.11% |
| Cleveland Guardians vs Houston Astros | Cleveland Guardians | 60.32% |
| New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies | New York Mets | 56.42% |
| Pittsburgh Pirates vs Colorado Rockies | Pittsburgh Pirates | 73.21% |
| Los Angeles Angels vs Athletics | Athletics | 55.73% |
| Baltimore Orioles vs Los Angeles Dodgers | Los Angeles Dodgers | 59.40% |
| Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners | Seattle Mariners | 52.46% |
| Minnesota Twins vs Arizona Diamondbacks | Minnesota Twins | 52.58% |
Bayesball Picks 
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